The international researcher and expert Jorge Retamales makes a diagnosis with interesting nuances when analyzing the contingency and reality of the fruit industry in the COVID 19 context.

In his view, he separates the immediate effects from those of the longer term, stopping at the latter, since most of the fruit species for export had already been harvested at the time of the start of the restrictions due to the pandemic, with the exception of some late varieties of apple, wine grapes, kiwis and walnut fruits whose harvest is mainly mechanized. 

In the medium term, it is still premature to measure the impact because there is not a full knowledge of the virus, its spread and epidemiology, however, like other analysts, it predicts that the serious problem of labor shortages that in recent years has existed in areas and fruit crops can be benefited, especially in the harvest, which is the most labor-intensive task in fruit production, due to the imminent unemployment that is causing the impact of the pandemic on the urban economy.

In the long term, he predicts that the global recession should reduce the demand for fruit in the destination markets of exports, which could affect both volumes and prices, and he is ahead of the proposal with some changes. 

What measures should be taken to anticipate or adapt to the possible new world scenario?

• I estimate that there should be changes at the level of fruit production, as well as its marketing. In the case of production, although it is believed that the possibility of contagion of this virus through manipulation of the fruit is low, in the future consumers in the markets of the northern hemisphere may place greater demands on the manipulation and packaging of the fruit. fruit. This should require additional effort and cost in cleaning protocols and information to consumers on the care in the different phases of the fruit export process (traceability). Operators should make an effort to keep distance from other people when harvesting and packing fruit; This could increase costs and / or reduce the capacity of fruit delivery for export. In the case of commercialization, consumers should be noted that all measures have been taken so that the fruit reaches its destination in optimal conditions and with all the information on the practices and processes implemented in the different phases of the export chain. .

In the case of the blueberry industry, what changes should be implemented to regain competitiveness?

• The Chilean blueberry industry had already been losing competitiveness in recent years with the strong emergence of Peru in international markets. Measures have been taken to improve the quality and competitiveness of Chilean blueberries: eliminate bad post-harvest varieties, greater traceability of operations throughout the export chain, more information on markets, etc. In a scenario of lower demand due to the negative impact of Covid-19, in the buyer markets for our blueberries (China. USA, Europe), the demand for blueberries in those countries should decrease and, in response to a growing supply, there would be a reduction in prices and an increase in market demands. This could imply lower returns for producers and that some of them are below the equilibrium price (that the export return price does not cover their costs).
  
  Given this, one option is to lower production costs. The highest cost of blueberry production is the harvest (about 50%). It was already mentioned that there could be a greater supply of labor in the face of the recession in the economy, but another option is to implement mechanical harvesting, which would require research and extension to be able to be implemented commercially.
  
  Unfortunately, the government is having to put large amounts of money both for subsidies, as well as to avoid unemployment and keep different productive sectors active, that could imply less availability of money to promote exports and also to do scientific / technological research in the coming years. Among other things, that research could generate developments that allow consumers to have information about the microbiological load of the fruit they are buying.

Professor Jorge Retamales will open the webinars of Agricultural Seminars, which will begin this Wednesday, May 06 with the theme: Pruning in blueberries: Bases and management to obtain quality fruit. 

More information: Agricultural Seminars