According to the initial estimate released by the Chilean Blueberry Committee, ASOEX in collaboration with iQonsulting, Chile is projected to experience a 6% reduction in the export of fresh blueberries for the 2023-2024 season compared to the previous year.

This year, Chile has allocated 18.071 hectares to the cultivation of blueberries, which represents a 2% reduction compared to 2022 figures. The reduction in the cultivated area is mainly attributed to the elimination of 1.164 hectares with older blueberry varieties than They were characterized by lower productivity and lower post-harvest longevity. In addition, 607 hectares have been designated for the cultivation of new varieties of blueberries, according to Andrés Armstrong, Executive Director of the Blueberry Committee. He further noted that newly established hectares with new varieties now exceed 20% of the total planted area and are expected to produce more significant increases in production in the coming seasons.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Users of Agronometrics you can see this graph with live updates here)

Regarding the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, which is already showing noticeable effects in other blueberry-producing regions of South America, such as Peru, Armstrong stated that it is premature to make a comprehensive evaluation. However, he notes that most blueberry-producing regions in Chile had completed their flowering stages before the significant rains experienced in August and September occurred.

“The lower accumulation of cold hours, a phenomenon that has strongly affected blueberry production in Peru, will have a lesser impact in Chile, since it occurred in regions where blueberry production is not relevant in our country. “We will be monitoring weekly the possible impact that rains, frosts and temperature changes associated with El Niño may have on the volumes to be exported from Chile,” he stated. He adds that varieties with good productivity but weaker postharvest characteristics are diverted to the frozen market.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Users of Agronometrics you can see this graph with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Users of Agronometrics you can see this graph with live updates here)

Peru anticipates a postponed peak, a scenario that may closely coincide with the start of Chile's peak. Peru's peak production period is likely to span weeks 48 to 50, which could result in substantial volumes that align with Chile's peak in January. Surveillance is essential regarding the total volume entering the markets, says Isabel Quiroz, executive director of iQonsulting, emphasizing the need to export only quantities that are in accordance with the preferences of global markets.

Nick Wishnatzki of Wish Farms He believes retailers will likely be ready and willing to promote Chilean blueberries as soon as incoming volume allows, given Peru's low volumes. "Demand for Chilean blueberries could be very interesting this year given the bumpy start to the season in Peru," he said. “Peru's blueberry harvest is much smaller than originally anticipated and if this continues, it could be an opportunity for Chile to regain some traction in the global blueberry market. It will be very important for Chile to focus on quality to take advantage of this opportunity,” he added.

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All US domestic agricultural commodity prices represent the spot market at the point of shipping (i.e. climate-controlled packing house/warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, price data represents the spot market at the port of entry.

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