On February 28, the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran, which responded with missile and/or drone strikes against US bases in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Israel. This new phase of the conflict sharply increases the risk to maritime transport, especially in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea.

The major shipping lines reacted immediately. Hapag-Lloyd stated that “the safety of our crews, vessels, and cargo remains our top priority,” warning that services calling at ports in the Arabian Gulf “may experience delays, diversions, or itinerary adjustments.” Furthermore, it emphasized that the measure “is not discretionary but a necessary response to the current conditions.” The shipping line also confirmed the suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

CMA CGM ordered all its vessels in or en route to the Persian Gulf to "immediately seek shelter," suspended transit through the Suez Canal, and announced diversions via the Cape of Good Hope. The decision, it stated, "is dictated by security considerations." Meanwhile, MSC has suspended all global cargo bookings to the Middle East region until further notice, and Maersk reports that all its 'MECL' and 'ME11' services will now be rerouted via southern Africa instead of the Suez route to which they had just switched.

Maritime industry analyst Lars Jensen described the moment as the start of “major combat operations underway in the Middle East” and warned that the Red Sea crisis—now 834 days long—could extend “beyond 1.000 days” without a swift resolution. While noting that “there are currently no reports of any commercial vessels being attacked,” the Times of Israel cited Houthi sources anticipating a possible resumption of attacks in the area.

Route via the Cape of Good Hope is consolidated 

The U.S. maritime warning established a danger zone in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea and Strait of Hormuz, noting that the U.S. Navy “cannot guarantee the safety” of merchant shipping in the area.

From a security perspective, Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer of BIMCO, stated that the attack “dramatically increases the risk for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf.” He added that insurance rates “will increase many times over” and that vessels with commercial ties to the United States or Israel “will likely be unable to obtain coverage.” Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, he assessed that Iran has the capacity to “coerce commercial shipping into deciding not to enter the conflict zone” in the short term.

The consultancy firm Xeneta warned that the new escalation “will see increased militarization around maritime trade, shattering hopes for a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026.” According to its head of analysis, Peter Sand, if the Houthis resume attacks—“as now seems likely”—shipping companies will reverse any return to the Suez Canal and prioritize routes around the Cape of Good Hope.

The structural impact is significant. Sailing around the Cape of Good Hope absorbs approximately 2,5 million TEUs of global capacity. A massive return to the Red Sea would have freed up that capacity and put significant downward pressure on tariffs. However, with that scenario now considered “unlikely,” Xeneta estimates that tariffs will continue to soften, but “will not fall as sharply as previously anticipated.”

In the Persian Gulf, the situation is even more critical. There is no viable maritime alternative for ports like Jebel Ali if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Xeneta anticipates that shipping lines will skip port calls and unload at alternative ports for land transport, which “will cause severe disruption and port congestion at a regional level,” although without the systemic impact of the Red Sea.

In the short term, shipowners are assessing risks by considering the intent and capability of an attack, the vessel's vulnerability, and their corporate risk tolerance. Some shipping lines will choose to stay completely out of the area; others will transit with enhanced security measures and military coordination.

The first hours of the conflict show a proactive rather than reactive response: people seeking refuge, detours, and the suspension of key transit routes. If hostilities continue or the Houthis resume attacks, the industry could face a prolonged logistics crisis that began in 2023, solidifying a scenario of longer routes, higher insurance costs, and persistent tariff instability.