The fertilizer shortage that so destabilized the agricultural sector and raised food costs seems to be disappearing around the world.

The lack of fertilizers, which plunged the agricultural sector into chaos and raised food prices around the world, may be disappearing. Crops around the world are dependent on nutrients from Russia, which is one of the biggest exporters, and the invasion of Ukraine 4 months ago destabilized markets for these essential chemicals.

Finally, prices rose so high that farmers stopped buying, and now the market has turned around. Fertilizer supplies are building from Florida to South America. Ships are waiting to unload and companies are rushing to reduce stocks at ports and warehouses, according to people familiar with the matter.

Warehouses in Brazil are nearing full capacity as farmers bet prices will continue to fall. Just weeks after the Russian invasion in March, North American potash stocks were at a 6-year high, according to Bloombergs Green Matkets and The Fertilizer Institute, as prices soared and farmers stopped using them .

At the same time, concerns that fertilizer supplies from Russia would be completely cut off have not materialized. Russian fertilizer sales are exempt from sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union in response to the Ukraine war, and some shipments are entering the United States according to cargo data tracked by Bloomberg.

A ship carrying 12.000 tons of granulated urea, a common nitrogen fertilizer, arrived from Russia with a bill of lading dated June 8. Although this is a fairly small amount, this confirms that the product has found an access route to US shores.

The US government is even encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and transport more Russian fertilizer.

Wholesale fertilizer prices are declining after hitting multi-year highs. North American prices are at their lowest level since January, and the closely watched index on the continent is down 35% since hitting a record in late March, according to Green Markets.

Farmers continue to expect lower prices as cereals tend to rise, increasing arbitrage on delayed nutrient purchases. This week the weekly Green Market Fertilizer Price Index fell 4%, adding to the 3% decline the previous week. Wholesale urea in New Orleans fell to the lowest level since August, and ammonia rose 2% on surging overseas demand.

If it continues, falling fertilizer prices could attenuate concerns that farmers are skipping synthetic nutrient applications to save money, lowering crop yields and worsening inflation and hunger in some parts of the world. .

However, it is too early to tell whether prices will soar if the war in Ukraine persists in a period when demand is seasonally higher.

“In the spring season, fertilizer prices have eased as late plantings, abundant supply and near-record prices per ton have led farmers to reduce fertilizer applications” said Alexis Maxwell, an analyst at Green Markets.

The fertilizer-to-crop price ratio, a key affordability metric, has plunged, "presenting a potential buying opportunity for corn farmers who need the product today."