As the Northern Hemisphere blueberry season draws to a close, the American market welcomes blueberries from South America.

Over the past ten years, much of the category's growth has come from southern growers, who strategically pursue higher prices than have traditionally been available during the trade window remaining outside of the North American harvest.

Ten years ago, the only significant origins in this period were Chile and Argentina. With the development of new varieties that can produce attractive fruit in warmer climates, the production of Peru and Mexico has reached the market making blueberries available year-round. This has leveled the price for consumers who have been encouraged to consume more blueberries than in any other period in human history; bringing considerably higher sales to the category.

Blueberry Volumes by Origin 2009-2010

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)

Blueberry Volumes by Origin 2019-2020

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)

Although there is still room for the southern hemisphere to grow to reach the volumes the United States sees at the height of its season in July, the added cost of producing overseas and the logistics to transport this fragile fruit is starting to increase pressure on profit margins; with Argentina already considerably reducing hectares and Chile maintaining its current production levels. Most of the growth has come from Peru and Mexico, where there is even talk of a slowdown in plantations.

That said, in newer growing regions like Peru, hectares that were planted in previous years are still in line with an expected 40% increase in production this year over last year. Only half of the Peruvian production will reach the US, where they expect a 30% increase compared to last year, according to Luis Miguel Vegas in his interview with Kasey Cronquist on episode 6 of the Business of Blueberries Podcast.

At the beginning of the season, volumes from Peru experienced a big jump, only to fall considerably lower than last year's volumes; which suggests that there is still more fruit to come, especially if the origin is to arrive with an increase of 30% year-on-year.

Historic Blueberry Imports from Peru

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)

Chile, on the other hand, expects a similar level of production last season, according to Andres Armstrong in his recent article with PortalFrutícola.com. With increased competition and narrower margins in the US, Chile has been investing heavily in diversifying the destinations to which its fruit is shipped, although the US remains the most attractive market with 50% of its production directed at its shores, the share has steadily declined over the years, “13% last year and 9% the year before,” Armstrong noted in this article.

From week 40 to the end of the year, 80% of the volume in the United States last year came from Peru (46%), Chile (19%) and Argentina (14%). As such, adding the forecast volumes together and comparing them to last year can provide a rough idea of ​​how the market will perform in the coming months.

For Peru we will take their shipments from last year and increase them by 30% as projected by the association, with Chile it would be prudent to take into account the 10% reduction in shipments to the US due to the diversification that we have seen in the last couple of years; using this figure to reduce our expected exports by the same amount. An important part of the market at this time of year is also Argentina, which is expected to have a harvest similar to last year.

The end result is a combined 15% volume increase for these three origins in the US market over the next 12 weeks. This level of growth is slightly higher than the average growth in retail sales that was calculated in the 2019 IBO State of the Industry Report for this time period, meaning that prices should remain in line or a bit below the levels we saw last time.

Historic Blueberry Prices

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)

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