This week's article takes on a different tone than our regular posts. I want to take the opportunity to highlight the work that Tomas Prusa did analyzing the blueberry markets for the Coalition for Progress and Health, an organization that was formed in response to the USITC section 201 investigation opposing the limitations import from the United States.

Before this takes on a political tone, it is important to note that Agronometrics is not positioning itself in research. We have clients that are on both sides and we seek to support each subscriber with the same data and the same level of customer service.

Dr. Prusa, professor of economics at Rutgers University and consultant to the coalition, hired our service shortly after the US Trade Representative made the formal request to the USITC to initiate the section 201 investigation. As a customer of our service, we help explain how to use the Agronometrics platform and make sense of the USDA data as we would in any other case.

The resulting report, 'An Economic Analysis of Competitive Dynamics in the US Fresh Blueberry Market' it's a very interesting study on blueberry markets. Dr. Prusa dived deep into the data sets that the USDA, IBO, USHBC, and others had, comparing and contrasting different sources of information to form the most comprehensive view of US blueberry industry data that I have ever seen. found.

The report was created to help coalition lawyers argue their case before the USITC, so it clearly makes an effort to show that there is little effect on the competitiveness of US producers. While I don't necessarily agree with all of the findings, there are many exciting insights to come by, including novel ways in which data from the Agronometrics platform can be visualized. In what follows, I cut and pasted some figures and tables from Dr. Prusa's report (which explains the odd figures and the numbering of the tables).

Figure 5 - Lack of temporary supply overlap (2019)

Source: USDA AMS Weekly Nonorganic & Organic Volume (“Movement”) Data (compiled by Agronometrics); adjusted Canadian data (APHIS undercount).

One thing the report does very well is offer an in-depth analysis of the US markets. The information will come as no surprise to long-term industry observers, suggesting that production efficiencies and newer varieties with desirable commercial characteristics are driving growth and profitable business. The origins that have not invested in their fields are not doing well either.

Comparing the yield analysis with growth from different regions is very revealing, showing strong growth from the West Coast where yields are high compared to declining production from “traditional growers” ​​where yields are low.

Table 7 - Performance Trends (US)

Source: Bilberry International, https://www.internationalblueberry.org/ (yield measured as metric tons of production / hectare)

Figure 12 - West Coast Supply Growth in the Second Half of the High Season

Source: USDA AMS weekly organic and non-organic volume (“Movement”) data (compiled by Agronometrics).

Another interesting graph analyzes the seasonality of production by comparing Western producers in the rest of the country. It does a good job of illustrating how the American market splits into two separate worlds.

Figure 7 - Competitive overlap of national producers

Source: USDA AMS weekly organic and non-organic volume (“Movement”) data (compiled by
Agronometrics); peak season is defined as weeks 17 to 36; the number in parentheses is
each state's share of annual domestic fresh blueberry shipments

The report goes even deeper, expanding the varieties that are being used in the different markets. With Western states clearly investing more in new varieties and genetics, while traditional producers are lagging behind.

Table 17 - Producers on the west coast adopt new varieties (* 36)

(* 36) Affidavit of Soren Bjorn, Driscoll's of the Americas (Appendix B).

Table 18 - Traditional producers predominantly grow older varieties (* 37)

* 37 Affidavit of Soren Bjorn, Driscoll's of the Americas (Appendix B).

As this article goes to press, the USITC Investigative Hearing is in progress. Through this process, five commissioners vote on whether or not there will be a recommendation to impose trade restrictions.

That said, the report alone has a lot to offer, including information on imports, prices, and an econometric model that measures the impact of imports on domestic producers.

I encourage anyone in the blueberry industry to take a look as there is a lot of valuable insights to be gained.