The results of national production for the period from January to August show that the Peruvian economy already operates at levels prior to the pandemic, even slightly above, said Adrián Armas, central manager of Economic Studies at the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) .

Armas said that for September, the leading indicators of the economy They also show growth levels above those prior to the health crisis, for this reason the monetary authority estimates that, in that month, national production would have grown between 8,5% and 9,5%.

He highlighted that in September, electricity production experienced a growth of 6,6% compared to the same month in 2020 and 4,6% compared to 2019. Similarly, he said that local cement consumption increased by 12,3% compared to 2020 and 23,6% compared to 2019.

"With which [if the BCR estimates are met], the production level in January and September would be higher compared to the same period in 2019. Peru is going to be one of the few economies of the region where GDP in 2021 will be higher than pre-pandemic levels ″, he said.

Imeco

For its part, the Monthly Economic Index of El Comercio (Imeco) suggests that economy would have grown by around 10,1% in the ninth month of the year, due to the momentum of the construction sector, which would have experienced an increase of around 15%, as well as the rebound in sectors such as mining and hydrocarbons, which grew by 11,1%, and agriculture, which advanced by 11,5%.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri), in September the agricultural subsector registered an increase of 18,3% compared to a similar period in 2020, associated with the higher production of blueberries, asparagus, avocado, oil palm, among others. products. According to Armas, in September, the volume of non-traditional exports grew by 14,4% compared to the same period in 2020 and by 35% compared to 2019.

For its part, the Ministry of Energy and Mines indicated that in said month copper production increased by 17,9% and gold by 20,2%. The head of economic studies of the monetary authority estimated that the rise in the prices of export minerals would continue to rise next year. Armas argued that the projections of the mineral sales contracts in the future do not present drastic changes, so it would be expected that, in 2022, the external scenario will remain highly favorable for the country.

The official indicated that if the production level reached in August by the economyIn the following months, the GDP could close 2021 with an increase of 13,2%, with which, the national production would return in its entirety to the levels registered in 2019. “All the indicators indicate that the economyIn 2021, it will grow more than the projected 11,9%. It is clearly an upward bias that we have in the GDP growth projection, ”he commented.

However, he emphasized that there are sectors such as manufacturing and services whose levels of formal employment are still below what existed before the pandemic.

Interest rates on deposits increase

Regarding the rise in interest rate On the part of the Central Bank, Armas specified that this decision is due to the fact that both in Peru and in the world, the acceleration of inflation has been more relevant than expected. Thus, as the price rise has been higher and higher and inflation expectations have been on the rise, the monetary authority has had to respond with a rate hike, which does not imply a cycle of successive hikes.

He commented that the rise in interest rate of the Central Bank has been reflected in the interest rates of the very short-term financial system and of very little or no credit risk (of default of payment), as for example, in the rates of deposits and loans for corporations.

Since August when the BCR decided to raise its Reference rate, tasas de interés Average one-year deposits have gone from 2% to 2,9% and the rates of corporate loans, at three months, have gone from 0,8% to 2,1%. Meanwhile, in the rest of the products, the impact has been less, with which, according to Armas, the tasas de interés they will remain low compared to those that have been observed in normal periods.

"Moving forward, tasas de interés in the world, including those of our country, possibly they will continue to rise, but it will depend on each sector. For example, in sectors that by nature have higher operating costs or higher credit risks, such as credit to small and micro-enterprises, the effect will be zero because these rates depend more on microeconomic conditions than macroeconomic ones "Pointed.

He even said that in the last two months, there has been a greater growth in credit to individuals and micro-businesses. For example, according to reports from the monetary authority, personal credit growth would be driven by vehicle loans, which went from growing 2% in August to 3,1% in September.

“The Central Bank will always monitor the evolution of the different variables. As I said, the decisions that the bank makes from now on will depend on how the economic situation in the country is going. We hope that the monetary policy position will be expansionary for a prolonged period, because the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus will be gradual "He said.