2015 figures alert Chilean export

02/02/2016

At the beginning of last year, one of the few factors that were identified as an engine for local activity was exports, which would have a favorable strengthening of the exchange rate.

And although the dollar ended with an appreciation of 16,1% (CH $ 104,1) in the local market, the deterioration of the external scenario and the sharp drop in international prices of raw materials -mainly copper- and other major Chilean products of export led to a different scenario.

According to information provided by the Central Bank at the beginning of January, the balance of the Chilean trade balance - at the close of 2015 - was US $ 4.142 million, with US $ 63.362 million coming from exports and US $ 59.220 million in imports .

In this way, shipments closed with an annual fall of 16,3%, the fourth consecutive decline and the largest one since the subprime crisis. In this result, the decline of 26,4% registered in December, the second most pronounced of the year, had an important influence.

The sector most affected was the one that accounts for the highest percentage of the total (53%): mining, which fell 18%, followed by industrial shipments that decreased 15%. Neither the agroforestry sector, which had the best prospects, was saved by having a fall of 7,9%.

The outlook for goods imports was not very different, since 2015 ended with a decrease of 12,8%. By type, intermediate goods showed the most marked decline, of 17,1%, while imports of products associated with consumption fell by 8,3%. Meanwhile, the importation of capital goods - advanced indicator of investment figures - closed 2015 with a decrease of 5%.

Fall in volumes

For economists and representatives of the export industry the figures were received as bad news.

For this reason, the president of the Association of Exporters of Manufactures (Asexma), Roberto Fantuzzi, said that the smaller shipments responded to crises in different economies of the world, such as China. "Without a doubt, this is one of the factors that hurt the export sector, as demand fell and this resulted in the fall of the supply of manufactured products offered by our country, because we manufactured but we did not sell them", he says.

The adverse climatic conditions were the main cause behind the fall of 10,2% that recorded the shipments of fresh fruit, explained the president of the Association of Exporters of Fruits of Chile (Asoex), Ronald Bown, to which a rate was added of unfavorable change in important destinations such as Europe.

For his part, Patricio Rojas, an economist at the consulting firm Rojas & Asociados, states that unlike in previous years, in 2015 there was a general decline in the entire export sector "And it's not only in prices, but also in volume", because the increase in demand was not good enough due to the external scenario since the rise of the dollar, as it was widespread, led to a loss of competitiveness for our products.

The biggest concern is that this scenario is likely to repeat itself or even get worse during the current year. "We are going to have a rather unfavorable external situation and our exports are going to deteriorate again in 2016, with copper production close to zero, therefore exports in volume will grow practically 0%", concludes.

Source: Maritime World