The presentation of Isabel Quiroz, from IQonsulting, in the online talk organized by Banco de Chile with the collaboration of Fedefruta, "Our Fruit in the world ... How do our markets look for 2021?", addresses fundamental aspects to design future scenarios regarding the fruit exporting industry, however, there are other opinions on the same topic that will surely open a debate on the best path for the industry.

The presentation first addresses the economy that, according to its indicators, the world will suffer a decrease of -3.0% globally in 2020, however, it will have a significant rebound and in 2021 it will be able to enjoy a growth of 5.8%.

In the case of the US, the projected figures are negative -5.9% in 2020 and growth of 4.7% in 2021. In Europe the difference is more radical, because in 2020 its economy is expected to fall to a -7.5%, to recover in 2021, reaching a growth of 4.7%. 

In the Latin American and Caribbean region, projections fluctuate between -5.2% in 2020 and a growth of 3.4% in 2021. Chile and Peru will be the countries with the best recovery, their economies will fall to -4.5% in 2020, but They will grow to 5.3% and 5.2% respectively in 2021.

Asia only grows

In this world map of the post-pandemic economy, the least affected regions will be the Middle East and Central Asia, with -2.8% in 2020 and 4.0% in 2021. The sub-Saharan region of Africa will have -1.6% in 2020 and a 4.1% in 2021, and the Asian emerging or developing countries region will reach a small growth of 1.0% in 2020, which will increase in 2021 to an explosive 8.5% increase in their economies.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) - on which the IQonsulting presentation bases its data - predicts that for China there will be no negative numbers, since its growth will fall to 1.2% in 2020, but will reach 9.2% in 2021.

Moments of crisis

In another field, the analysis establishes four time states related to the markets during the crisis and categorizes them according to their behavior and projections.

Covid stage / 19

Lockdown, closure of ports, health crisis, lack of workers. An increase in consumption at home and less perishable products is evident. There is no activity on the Horeca channel. Healthy and safe are revalued, and a high online purchase.

Market Recovery Stage with Covid 

(In China it has already started. In the US and Europe it will start in August)

New pandemic eating habits are maintained. Prices drop in most foods, except in the most demanded, and a high online purchase is maintained.

Economic Recovery Stage 

(In China and the US it starts in December. In Europe, in February 2021)  

The recession will be evident and there will be a drop in demand. There will be different behaviors depending on the market. The online purchase drops slightly and the Horeca channel gradually recovers.

New Normal Stage 

(In China it will start in April 2021. In the US, in June 2021, and in Europe in September 2021) 

Demand recovers and consumer tastes and preferences are reformulated. Retail is reorganized and there is a greater willingness to pay more for premium food. The demand for sustainability returns.

Changes in the way fresh food is consumed in Asia

The study focuses on Chinese consumption, but is applicable to all markets. Research states that 67% of consumers will buy fresh produce daily during the pandemic. 89% are more willing to buy their needs online after the pandemic, and 80% say they will pay more attention to eating healthier after the pandemic.

Need for a sustainable story

In this framework of the world economy, market behavior, and consumers, experts emphasize that sustainability and our environmental commitments must not be forgotten in any of the post-pandemic recovery strategies. There is consensus that the reactivation is sustainable and responsible with the care of the environment.

In the presentation of Isabel Quiroz the emphasis is placed on preparing at the country level, as an industry and each one facing this new stage, or "New Normality", generating the competitiveness elements of the new economy, such as offering a product adapted to the consumer with high performance, with packaging appropriate to the various channels and "with a narrative (history / poetry) that motivates".

This story must contemplate external elements, such as the great development of NCRE or the need to lower the Co2 footprint, among others. In short, to place sustainability as the central axis of the agricultural development policy, in the perspective of being recognized as a sustainable country, internalizing this story in all areas of production and products, including packaging and marketing channels. commercialization.

Detractors 

This sustainable culture as a country image that is asked to be transmitted in the products that are exported, has detractors. There are producers who argue that post-pandemic economic recovery should be addressed using available resources, minimizing costs at each stage of production as much as possible and slowing down the sustainability process, setting it as a medium-term objective. These are sectors that are not convinced that the recovery of the economy will be so prompt, and they calculate in two or three years a final recovery that will allow them to invest and readjust products according to a story of sustainable culture.