Added to this are the publications that in recent months have been responsible for predicting a sharp drop in production and the volume of exports of the Peruvian blueberry industry in the current 2023/2024 campaign.

The projected percentages of decline in Peruvian shipments to the international blueberry market have been diverse and as the weeks go by these projections have ranged between a drop of 40% and 60% by the most alarmist.

Best prices

These conflicting announcements have arisen not only with respect to production volumes or export shipments, but also with respect to the causes that would have caused, or would be causing, this strong productive decrease in the Peruvian blueberry industry. Different advisors and specialists have quickly come out to blame climate change for this decline.

On the other hand, and as a consequence of this alert situation due to the loss of fruit, a significant recovery has been caused in the prices of the product, almost doubling its value compared to the same date of the previous year, increasing the values ​​of the fruit almost doubled compared to the previous campaign on the same date, considerably benefiting producers who have been lucky enough to coincide with their shipments in these weeks of fruit shortage.

Causes

But what has happened in the Peruvian industry for this alarming situation to be announced?

As a framework, we are talking about an industry that in recent years has been showing growth unattainable by international competition, becoming the main exporter of blueberries in the world, with volumes close to 300 thousand tons of fresh blueberries placed in the different world markets.

What happened?

The official response is that it is not so much a drop in volumes, but more precisely a delay in production. Delay caused by the impact of the El Niño meteorological phenomenon, which has hit much of Peru, with heat waves of 5°C or 6°C above the normal averages for the period in the last two decades.

Slowdown

The impact of El Niño delayed the flowering of the plants, therefore, the setting of the fruit, its ripening, the harvest and all the commercial commitments that arise. Furthermore, it explains why the Ventura variety, which represents around 35% of the Peruvian supply, was the most affected by this phenomenon. Given this, Proarándanos, in its latest corrected projection this October 2, maintains that the drop in total volumes for the 2023/2024 Peruvian season will only be 9%, a very lower figure and far from those who maintain a final drop. much higher.

Unknown phenomenon

Other analysts deny that this is only due to the El Niño climate phenomenon, and even maintain that it would be a new, unknown, or at least different, phenomenon that is causing this intense stress in plants that has caused a significant physiological impact. , with closure of stomata and delay in flowering, and all the subsequent productive consequences described above.

Different managements

On the other hand, because the productive results and consequences have not been uniform in the different regions and Peruvian farms, the thesis is also raised that the management that is not adequate to face the crisis is the cause of this reality of drop in production. Peruvian Because in the face of the climate threat, the different technicians and advisors responded with applications of different products and palliative measures, which in some cases has given results and in others has been a failure, demonstrating a great professional gap in those responsible for the crops.

Necessary debate

As we see, there are many factors involved in this debate, and other analyzes and opinions will continue to be added, so the final evaluation of the Peruvian season will surely be a complex process, probably with some disagreements, but very attractive and enriching for the entire of the global blueberry industry.

It will probably be a main topic to be discussed in the International Blueberry Seminar in March, in Lima, and then in July, in the Trujillo Seminar, because to the extent that these issues are thoroughly analyzed, the industry grows in knowledge and forces it to raise the professional standards of advisors and technicians responsible for the crop, both in what corresponds to agronomic management in its physiological reality, as well as in the abiotic crop environment.

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