The year 2025, understood more as a symbolic turning point than a literal date, was marked in the memory of international trade by a succession of announcements, warnings and threats from the United States, led by Donald Trump, aimed at raising tariffs and tightening access conditions to its domestic market.

Regardless of whether some of these measures were fully implemented or remained merely rhetorical, their mere formulation generated a climate of structural uncertainty that directly impacted fresh food exporting countries, particularly in South America, and very visibly, the industry of blueberry.

In a highly globalized world, the announcement of a trade policy can be as disruptive as its effective implementation.

The threats of increased tariffs were not solely based on technical criteria of industrial protection or trade balance. They were part of a broader logic of economic nationalism, where tariffs become instruments of political pressure, diplomatic negotiation, and a domestic message to the American electorate.

Structural vulnerability of the South American blueberry

El blueberry It is a product with three characteristics that make it especially sensitive to these types of scenarios:

1. High dependence on the US market. Countries such as Chile, Peru, Mexico and, to a lesser extent, Argentina and Uruguay, allocate a substantial part of their fresh blueberry exports to the United States, especially during the autumn and winter months of the northern hemisphere.
2. Tight margins and rising costs. The business of blueberry It already faces pressure from labor, logistics, energy, and regulatory costs. Even a moderate tariff increase could transform a profitable operation into an unviable one.
3. Highly perishable product. Unlike commodities storable, the blueberry It doesn't allow for long waits or easy redirections. The closure or increased cost of a key market has immediate effects on prices, fruit condition, and returns to the producer.

One of the most profound impacts of this “year of announcements and threats” was not necessarily economic in the short term, but psychological and strategic, because exporters postponed investments; nurseries and genetic programs adjusted their projections; US importers put pressure on prices; banks and insurers tightened financing conditions and in practice, uncertainty translated into caution, and caution into a slowdown.

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From single market to forced diversification

Faced with this scenario, many South American companies began to accelerate processes that, until then, had been progressing slowly, such as market diversification, varietal replacement, new commercial alliances and vertical integration, and a greater focus on mechanization and efficiency to compensate for possible losses due to higher tariff costs.

Paradoxically, the tariff threat acted as a catalyst for modernization, albeit at a high and unequal cost between large and small players.

The incident highlighted an uncomfortable reality for South American agricultural exports: excessive dependence on a single market is a strategic risk. The United States will continue to be, due to its size and purchasing power, a key destination for these exports. blueberry global. However, it can no longer be considered a completely predictable market or immune to internal political upheavals.

More than a year, a warning

“A year of announcements and threats” was not just a circumstantial episode, but a warning sign for the entire export-oriented agribusiness. It demonstrated that international trade in fresh food no longer depends solely on quality, volume, or production efficiency, but also on political stability, trade diplomacy, and strategic adaptability.

In the case of blueberry In South America, the future of the sector will depend not only on the farm, but also on market diversification, genetic innovation, structural efficiency, and geopolitical intelligence. Because in a world where announcements carry as much weight as actions, anticipating trends is no longer an advantage, it's a necessity.

Excerpt from the article “2025: A Year of Announcements and Threats”, published in Blue Magazine 2026