Is climate change anthropogenic?

The phenomena that affect the nature and that come from the change in the climate happen. It is a phenomenon that is evident in almost all regions of the world. In our country they have even manifested with characteristics of catastrophe.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, predicts that in the near future even the existence of some countries will be threatened by changes in the global climate and the possible rise in the global temperature of the Earth, which is estimated above 1 ° C and below 4 ° C.

The public is looking responsible and aims its darts at the economic development model as the culprit of this phenomenon, that is, it would be an anthropogenic climate change.

To define whether climate change is anthropogenic, the concept must first be defined, and this means that it is due to the processes, consequences, effects or materials that are the result of human activities, unlike those that have natural causes, without human influence.

According to this we can say that anthropogenic climate change are those alterations in climate that arise from the result of human activities.

It follows then that everything related to industrialization and the capitalist model of development is to blame for the consequences on climate change, but that is not all, since actions prior to the Industrial Age also fall into anthropogenic reasons, such as deforestation to start agriculture or livestock, or the settlement and concentration of housing, human actions dating from the 700 ac

What is certain and verifiable is that greenhouse gases are some of the factors that influence climate change and most are anthropogenic.

The IPCC says in its latest report that "Human influence on the climate system is clear. However, determining whether that influence constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference" in the terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) involves both risk assessment and value judgments" Therefore, a report is evacuated to assess the risks in different contexts and over time, which provides a basis to have elements of judgment on the level of climate change in which risks become dangerous.

The report lists five integrating concerns that provide a framework for summarizing key risks in various sectors and regions. First noted in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, the concerns (MDP) show the consequences of warming and the limits of adaptation for people, economies and ecosystems.

These five points represent a starting point for the assessment of "dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system", as stated in the aforementioned article 2:

1) Unique and threatened systems: some unique and threatened systems, including ecosystems and cultures, are already at risk due to climate change. The number of such systems at risk of serious consequences is greater in the event that additional heating occurs around 1 ° C. Many species and systems with limited adaptive capacity are subject to very high risks should they occur additional warming of 2 ° C, especially Arctic sea ice and coral reef systems.

2) Extreme weather episodes: The risks related to climate change derived from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation and coastal flooding, are already between moderate and high in the event of an additional warming of 1 ° C. The risks associated with some types of extreme events (for example, extreme heat) intensify with higher temperatures.

3) Distribution of impacts: Risks are distributed in different ways and are generally greater for people and disadvantaged communities in the countries, regardless of their level of development. The risks are already moderate due to the different impacts of climate change in the different regions on agricultural production in particular. Based on projected decreases in crop yields and water availability in the regions, the risks of unequally distributed impacts are high for additional heating above 2 ° C.

4) Total impacts globally: The risks of total global impacts are moderate for an additional warming between 1 ° C and 2 ° C, reflecting both the impacts on the Earth's biodiversity and the overall global economy. The risk of widespread loss of biodiversity with associated destruction of ecosystem goods and services is high in the event of additional warming of around 3 ° C. Total economic damage is accelerated by the increase in temperature, but few quantitative estimates are completed for additional heating of around 3 ° C or higher.

5) Singular large-scale episodes: With an increase in warming, some physical systems or ecosystems may go into a situation of risk of abrupt and irreversible changes. The risks associated with these critical points become moderate with additional warming between 0 ° C and 1 ° C, as indicated by early warning signs that both warm-water coral reefs and Arctic ecosystems are already experiencing irreversible changes in their regimes. Risks increase disproportionately as heating increases between 1 ° C and 2 ° C and exceeds 3 ° C, due to the potential for large and irreversible sea level rise due to the loss of ice sheets. For a sustained warming above a certain threshold, the almost complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet would occur after a millennium or more and would contribute to a rise in the global mean sea level of up to 7 meters.

In summary, no one doubts that the so-called climate change and global warming of the Earth have their causal origin in human activity in all its forms and since the remote times when man chose to live in society, although it is undoubted that the greater impact has been produced with the current model of economic development, which sometimes does not tremble at damaging the natural environment in its desperate desire to produce material wealth.

Naomi Klein, the Canadian journalist author of "The Doctrine of Shock" says that "We live in a time in which our experts have failed us. This is largely the reason why people around the world are outraged", And adds that growth at all costs is"incompatible” with the preservation of the riches that nature offers. “Our economic system is based on growth and the planet requires well-being. We need to contract the extraction of fossil fuels” declares in the framework of a new climate summit to be held in December in Paris and which aims to replace the Kyoto agreement.

 

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC

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