The impact of Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the rest of the world

Yesterday, President Donald Trump announced new import taxes on all goods entering the United States. Goods and products from around 60 nations face higher rates in what Trump calls retaliation for unfair trade policies. His plan establishes a base tariff of 10 percent on all imports, effective April 5. Higher tariffs for certain countries will take effect April 9. How will this play out for the U.S., a country that relies heavily on fruit and vegetable imports, according to a recent analysis by Fruit & Vegetable Facts? Tomatoes are the largest imported vegetable, with Canada and Mexico as the top suppliers. Bell peppers and cucumbers rank second and third. The volume of fresh fruit imports is about double the volume of fresh vegetable imports, with bananas making up the largest category. Other major imports include pineapples, grapes, melons, lemons, blueberries, and mangoes.

USMCA Agreement.
Yesterday's announcements represent no change for Mexico and Canada, two of the United States' closest trading partners. For Canada and Mexico, products that meet the requirements of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which include specialty crops, are not subject to additional tariffs. "IFPA appreciates the administration's decision to allow continued trade in fresh produce and floral products covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)," said Cathy Burns, IFPA's executive director, in a statement. "Fresh fruits, vegetables, and flowers are among the most heavily traded commodities in North America and other parts of the world. Reducing trade barriers ensures consumers continue to have access to affordable fresh produce and floral products, while supporting the farmers and businesses that sustain the industry." However, IFPA remains concerned about the broader application of tariffs to global trading partners and the resulting disruptions to supply chains, market stability, and global food prices. Global trade in fresh produce is essential to the health and well-being of people in all countries. The targeted use of tariffs can be a tool to address inequalities between trading partners, but the widespread application of this blunt instrument often disrupts markets, increases costs for consumers, and puts unnecessary pressure on farmers and producers throughout the supply chain.

Francisco Meré of Blooms, a provider of export capital, is also pleased with the decision on imported products from Mexico and the United States. “We welcome President Trump’s decision to exempt imports of products that comply with the USMCA from tariffs,” he said in a statement on LinkedIn. “Mexico and Canada are the primary sources of fresh and frozen products to meet a substantial portion of the $100 billion annual demand of U.S. households. This is an important step toward reducing food inflation while meeting consumers’ nutritional and health preferences.”

Tariffs for each country.
However, products exported from countries outside the North American continent will be subject to a minimum tariff of 10%. The European Union and the United Kingdom are planning tariffs of 20% and 10%, respectively. Products from China will be subject to an additional tariff of 34%, on top of the existing 20% ​​tariff, bringing the total levy to 54%. A summary of tariffs by country is provided below.

Fear of retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products.
American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall commented on the tariffs implemented for global trading partners. “Trade is critical to the success of farmers and ranchers across the country. We share the administration’s goal of leveling the playing field with our international partners, but increased tariffs threaten the economic sustainability of farmers, who have lost money on most major crops over the past three years,” he said. He is referring to the threat of retaliatory tariffs. “More than 20% of farm income comes from exports, and farmers rely on imports for essential supplies like fertilizer and specialized tools. Tariffs will increase the cost of critical supplies, and retaliatory tariffs will make US-grown products more expensive globally. This combination not only threatens farmers’ competitiveness in the short term, but could cause long-term damage by leading to losses in market share.”

"With the president's announcements, the top five export markets for US apples are in the spotlight," said Jim Bair of the U.S. Apple Association. Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India together purchased $756 million worth of US apples in 2024. "Now we're nervously awaiting their reaction and hoping they calm down," Bair added.

Reaction of the European Union.
Nations outside the United States are also responding to the tariff announcements. The European Union is concerned that these tariffs will only lead to further tariff escalation and a downward economic spiral for the United States and the world as a whole. “Because of Trump’s decision, American consumers will be forced to bear the brunt of a trade war,” says Bernd Lange, chairman of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade. “While President Trump might call April 2 ‘Liberation Day,’ from the perspective of an ordinary citizen, this is ‘Inflation Day.’” The EU plans to respond with legal, legitimate, proportionate, and decisive measures. “The countries that have been targeted by these measures must respond with a united front and send a clear message to the United States to end this tariff madness.” While Lange hopes the US government will be interested in collaborating with the EU, he is unsure.

Australia is disappointed.
The United States has imposed 10% tariffs on imported Australian products, but New South Wales Farmers President Xavier Martin is urging farmers to remain calm. “Our industry will undoubtedly suffer, some products more than others, but we have resolved trade issues before and we will do so again.” While the United States imports some agricultural products from Australia, the country primarily focuses on fruit and vegetable exports to China, Japan, and South Korea, valued at $3900 billion, $2600 billion, and $2500 billion, respectively. Meat is Australia’s largest export, and the Red Meat Advisory Council estimates the total impact on US consumers as a result of tariffs on Australian red meat would be A$600 million, equivalent to $380 million in US dollars.

South America
Peru, Chile, and Colombia are some of the largest exporters of fresh produce from South America to the United States, and the continent's share has grown rapidly in recent years. Most South American countries appear to be subject to a 10% tariff, which is significant given the value of the produce they export annually to the United States. Peru is a major supplier of table grapes, blueberries, asparagus, avocados, and citrus to the U.S. market. In 2023, the country was the largest exporter of fresh fruit to the United States after Mexico, with a value of $2277 billion. Chile is the third-largest exporter of fruit to the United States, with citrus, berries, table grapes, cherries, stone fruit, and avocados being some of the largest categories.

Great contrast in Africa.
South Africa, an exporter of citrus fruits, grapes, and stone fruits to the United States, has been hit hard with a 30% tariff. When asked about the issue, one American importer stated that the details of these new tariffs still need to be studied to determine their full impact. Moroccan exporters were relieved to be hit with a 10% tariff, which was considered a privilege. Citrus fruits are the main product exported to the United States, but a category like blueberries has seen strong export growth recently. Until now, trade between Morocco and the United States was governed by a free trade agreement, with a trade balance favorable to the United States, which explains the low tariff.

In short, these import tariffs add significant uncertainty to an industry that has faced challenges such as the pandemic, economic downturns, logistical challenges, and rising input costs. Updates will be posted in the coming days as more information becomes available.

Source
Fresh Plaza

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