According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño conditions strengthened during the past month, with a broad area of ​​ocean surface temperature anomalies exceeding +1.0°C across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening of El Niño conditions.

In addition to model forecasts, the strong coupling between atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Pacific provides a very high level of confidence that El Niño will persist until early 2027. There is an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño occurring during the October-December period, which would be among the largest El Niño events in the historical record, dating back to 1950.

However, while stronger El Niño events do not produce the typical impacts in all regions, they can significantly shift the probabilities toward expected outcomes (refer to CPC's outlook for seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño conditions continue to strengthen and are expected to intensify through the end of the year, with a 97% probability of persisting into early spring 2027.

A strong El Niño event, on its own, could disrupt agricultural production in several food-producing regions simultaneously. Previous episodes have led to droughts, crop failures, and food crises, such as in Indonesia in 1997-98, Ethiopia in 2015-16, and southern Africa in 2023-24. This is illustrated in the graph, which shows an increase in food prices after or around an El Niño event.

But coinciding with the conflict in the Middle East, which is affecting energy and fertilizer markets, it could become a powerful risk multiplier. It could increase the risk of a broader food crisis. The World Bank forecasts that global prices for staple foods will rise by 2.5% this year, or even more.

El Niño is no longer just an agricultural or climate risk, but also a macroeconomic one. Rising food prices fuel inflation, erode household purchasing power, and increase the tax burden on governments that subsidize fuel and social protection programs. For food-importing countries, increased imports can put pressure on public finances and foreign exchange reserves.

In fact, in 2023, the European Central Bank estimated that a strong El Niño phenomenon increases global prices of basic foodstuffs by up to 9% for a maximum of two years, peaking 16 months after its onset.

Therefore, an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, or the start of any other additional conflict, along with the expected occurrence of El Niño, could worsen the current disturbances and turn them into a much larger food crisis.