The new year is shaping up to be a year of moderate growth for Peruvian agricultural exports, according to the consultancy Fresh Fruit Peru , which forecasts 2% growth “in a conservative scenario” for 2025, with blueberries leading this growth and products such as cocoa and coffee in decline.

In terms of production, a mild coastal La Niña is expected to bring more favourable conditions to coastal regions, while areas affected by Cyclone Yaku in 2023 have already returned to normal.

The recent opening of the Chancay megaport also offers huge potential for exports to China and Asia. Located 80 kilometres north of Lima, Chancay is the largest deepwater port on the west coast of South America and will halve transit times between the two continents, benefiting not only Peru, but exporters across the region.

But a question mark looms over the United States, Peru's largest market for grapes, blueberries and asparagus, among other products, over potential changes the incoming Trump administration could introduce to trade.

The water crisis in Piura also remains a critical concern, especially in the production of mangoes, limes and bananas.

“Another factor that could have a negative impact is international inflation, which has the potential to slow down global demand for Peruvian products. The increase in production costs, coupled with the fall in purchasing power in key markets, could reduce exports and put the sector in trouble,” he said. Fresh Fruit Peru .

Despite the opening of the Chancay port, the consultancy also noted that the lack of modern infrastructure remains a crucial constraint for the industry, and congestion at these points continues to drive up logistics costs.

“The Chancay port appears to be a great step forward, but only time will tell if it is sufficient to meet the demands of the sector. In addition, irrigation infrastructure is still deficient in most regions of the country, which will cause inefficient water use to continue for many more years,” he said.

Finally, the consultancy points to the lack of business intelligence as another factor limiting export growth and warns that if the sector does not adapt quickly to international market trends and does not make strategic decisions based on data and analysis, it could lose ground to more agile competitors.

“The challenges of 2025 will require greater strategy and adaptability, especially in the face of high competitiveness in global markets and fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products. However, Peru will continue to consolidate itself as a relevant player in the quality agricultural export offer, with important opportunities derived from the opening of new markets and improvements in infrastructure, such as the megaport of Chancay ", indicated Fresh Fruit Peru.