The 90-day postponement of the application of "reciprocal tariffs" was a relief for cargo owners, but it shouldn't be a cause for celebration. The trade war between the United States and China has escalated, with mutual tariffs now exceeding the previously unimaginable figure of 100%. For Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, considering this fact an improvement in the international trade landscape "is rather an indication of the seriousness of the previous circumstances."

What's next? This is the question that plagues supply chain participants daily in the face of Donald Trump's belligerent and meandering tariff policy. However, despite the fact that uncertainty has reached a peak, perhaps unseen since the COVID-19 pandemic or the 2008 subprime crisis, some inferences can be made.

A consequence pointed out in the previous edition of Maritime World is the increase in the cancellations of itineraries, a fact now confirmed by the maritime industry analyst lars jensen, who explains that “with the extreme tariffs still in force between the United States and China, container volumes will decrease drastically”, a fact that will imply that “in the short term we will see an increase in blank salilings for some services, while other services will call at other Asian countries simply by making port omissions in China. This will make the supply and demand situation at the port level somewhat unpredictable," he anticipates.

Is the reconfiguration of maritime routes beginning?

The above will have as a more general consequence, that "all operators will also change their network itineraries," he points out. Jensen.

At the same time, the analyst notes, “we should expect a large increase in cargo from locations outside of China, as importers try to move as much product as possible before the new July 9 deadline. Therefore, having some services bypass Chinese ports will work well, as it will reduce capacity in China, where bookings are declining, while increasing capacity elsewhere where an increase is expected.”

sand fully agrees with the analysis of Jensen"Those who have the opportunity to accelerate imports from countries outside China will do so because the situation remains very unpredictable," he says.

"Japan, for example," he points out, "is one of the United States' key trading partners, so the urgency to anticipate the shipment of goods could put upward pressure on spot rates on this route." In fact, this appears to be already happening. According to data from xeneta On January 1, the rates spot Average Japan-to-US East Coast (USEC) rates were US$120/FEU lower than China-to-USEC rates. However, they are now US$610/FEU higher, with the potential for this differential to widen if there is a simultaneous rush of goods out of Japan due to a drop in demand from China.

Equipment shortages and other consequences

An important point for importers to consider in this reorganization of routes is that this sudden increase in shipments out of China has the potential to cause a shortage of available equipment, "since the repositioning of empty containers is not planned for such an event," he points out. Jensen to make things more complex.

The route change would also be a severe blow to niche Pacific shipping lines, which have a primary hub in China and "limited options" to be flexible with their network. If the trade war continues, "it's very likely that many of them will have to suspend their Pacific services, in part or entirely," he said. Jensen.

With all this realignment of international maritime trade, the analyst highlights the decision of those cargo-owning groups that opted for a "wait and see" strategy, which proved to be a good one when faced with the sudden and significant changes in U.S. tariff policies.

As for whether this could be the beginning of the definitive reconfiguration of maritime service networks predicted when Trump began to shake up international maritime trade with his announcements and setbacks on tariffs, we'll have to wait and see. Everything could change tomorrow, or even today.