The dramatic escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has the potential to negatively impact the fresh produce business in several ways, according to one of the industry's leading analysts.

After the United States and Israel carried out airstrikes against several targets in Iran, fears have arisen about a possible escalation of hostilities that could potentially lead Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, a vital international shipping route through which a fifth of the world's oil is supplied.

While that response is by no means certain, it has already been approved by the Iranian parliament and would be a major shock to global energy markets and would damage the economy.

“That would result in a new wave of inflation,” he said. Cindy van Rijswick, global fruit, vegetable and floriculture strategist at RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness.

“Rising oil and natural gas prices would lead to higher costs for logistics, packaging, fertilizers, greenhouse heating, and other inputs,” he added. “And there are many potential indirect effects. Since rising oil prices will lead to higher inflation, consumer budgets would be affected, which could result in a shift in fruit and vegetable purchases.”

Meanwhile, the director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, also warned that attacks on Iran could slow global economic growth.

“There could be secondary and tertiary impacts,” he told Bloomberg TV "Let's assume there's more turbulence affecting growth prospects in major economies; then there's a triggering impact for downward revisions to the global growth outlook."