Peru's economic outlook improves as mass protests subside

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The mass protests that have wreaked havoc in Peru's mines, agriculture and tourism appear to be losing steam, raising chances of an economic recovery with President Dina Boluarte still in power.

Measured by the number of highways blocked across the Andean nation, the protesters are dispersing quickly, though their main demands have gone unheeded.

The number of roadblocks has fallen by three-quarters from a peak in January, according to Peru's highway authority. On Tuesday, the blockades were overwhelmingly concentrated in just one remaining area, the southeastern region of Puno.

“It seems that things are changing for the better,” said Eduardo Jiménez of the economic consultancy Macroconsult. "February should see economic growth somewhat higher than what we saw in January, when we expected close to zero."

In a country that has had seven presidents since early 2016, many Peruvians did not expect Boluarte's presidency to last long, but he has so far managed to cling to power amid the worst unrest in decades. Protesters began blocking key highways almost as soon as she took office in early December, calling for her resignation and new elections, but are now showing signs of fatigue.

Peru's most famous tourist site, Machu Picchu, reopened this month as the unrest subsided.

The riots have left 60 dead, mostly civilian protesters killed in clashes with security forces. The disruption also caused a spike in inflation as supplies of food and other goods were disrupted.

Despite the rebound in consumer prices, Peru this month halted its series of steepest-ever interest rate hikes as lawmakers worry about growth prospects. Some analysts predict that the central bank will be the first in the region to start cutting interest rates, in a scenario in which the economy remains weak.

Read more: Former Finance chief sees cuts in Peru's interest rates starting in April

waning riots

Lawmakers went into recess this week, vowing to look at the election issue at some point in the future. President Dina Boluarte has repeatedly insisted that she will not resign.

“The authorities have not bet on resolving the crisis, but on deflating it,” said Gonzalo Banda, a Peruvian political analyst.

By going into recess, Congress has helped remove the issue of immediate elections from the center of public debate, he said. After eleven weeks of activity, the protesters are also tired, he added.

The decline in unrest is good news for Peru's businesses and the central bank, although some analysts fear it could easily reappear as the underlying causes have not been addressed.

An Ipsos poll this month showed that 76% of Peruvians want Boluarte to resign and 70% want new elections to be called this year. Boluarte took office on December 7 after President Pedro Castillo was impeached for trying to dissolve Congress.

“As long as this administration remains in power, the protests will continue in cycles and will hurt the economy,” said Omar Coronel, a Peruvian sociologist who specializes in studying riots.

difficult recoveries

Peru's agricultural industry appears to have recovered further, Macroconsult's Jiménez said, as key highways reopened amid the key grape harvest. Peru is a major exporter of fresh produce, such as grapes, blueberries, avocados, and asparagus.

However, many of the country's largest copper mines remain disrupted, including MMG Ltd's Las Bambas and Glencore's Antapaccay. Minsur SA's San Rafael tin mine has not operated since January 12.

Read more: MMG keeps a plant in Peru running even as mining remains halted.

Tourist arrivals have risen from January lows, but are still far from a full recovery.

“The first quarter has been catastrophic, I am not exaggerating,” said Juan Stoessel, general director of Hoteles Casa Andina, Peru's largest hotel chain.

Still, bookings are now rising while cancellations are falling, he added.

As the outlook improves, Morgan Stanley this week recommended buying Peruvian stocks.

Peru is "more resilient than you think," he said, in a report released Tuesday. “Solid macroeconomic fundamentals should help avoid the possibility of an economic derailment due to social unrest.”

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