The containerized shipping market continues to experience significant adjustments in response to the uncertainty generated by the United States tariff policy. A recent analysis presented by Drewry in its Freight Loop news program reveals that, due to these measures, a significant number of blank sailings have been canceled, especially on routes between Asia and the United States.

On the Eastbound Transpacific route (China-United States), the percentage of blank sailings increased from 9% in week 13 to 24% in week 18 (or from March 24 to May 4). This rapid response by shipping lines aims to balance supply in the face of reduced demand, caused by a decrease in bookings for shipments from China.

The most active shipping lines in terms of cancellations have been MSC, with 30% of blank sailing, followed by Premier Alliance (25%) and Ocean Alliance (23%). In contrast, Gemini Alliance maintained a significantly lower rate, at just 6%. Although the pace of cancellations has slowed in May compared to April, Drewry warns that there could be additional adjustments in the coming weeks.

Capacity reduction and service suspensions

The cancellation of routes has a direct effect on the total available capacity. According to data from Drewry, capacity on the Asia–U.S. East Coast (USEC) route decreased by 22% in April and 18% in May. On the Asia–West Coast (USWC) route, the decline was 20% in April and 12% in May.

Beyond the specific cancellations, some shipping lines are opting to suspend entire services. MSC eliminated around 43.000 TEUs of monthly capacity by discontinuing one of its routes to the USWC. ZIM cut 20.000 TEUs, and TS Lines withdrew another 8.000 TEUs monthly. The launch of Premier Alliance's "PS5" service was also postponed, with no new date announced.

Outlook for the second half of the year

The projections of Drewry indicate that capacity on the various Trans-Pacific routes could grow by between 5% and 8% in May compared to April, although this increase will depend on developments in trade policy. The consulting firm predicts a possible new wave of early cargo (front loading) before the end of the current tariff pause, scheduled for July. This situation could lead to an early peak season, temporarily boosting shipping volumes.

However, it is noted that, in the absence of progress in trade negotiations, more route cancellations and service suspensions could occur, with a consequent impact on the maritime transport network and global demand. The evolution of these factors will determine whether the recent rate increases can be sustained or whether they will be reversed in an environment marked by instability and constant supply adjustments.