Mexico, Canada and the United States make up the most integrated agri-food trade bloc in the world, with a combined food self-sufficiency rate of 112%, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

In other words, North America has the capacity to meet its domestic food needs and export surpluses, explains Juan Carlos Anaya, general director of the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA).

However, Mexico has the lowest self-sufficiency in the region, at 90%, and the most obvious weakness is in grains, where the rate is 45%, while in livestock it has 82%, he notes. On the other hand, Canada boasts the highest agro-food self-sufficiency, with 136%; and the United States reaches a rate of 116 percent.

Anaya highlights that the three countries have built a highly competitive trade bloc, particularly in key products such as corn, meat and dairy products, generating significant economic benefits for their economies.

Last year, Mexico exported agricultural and agro-industrial products worth 50 billion dollars to the United States, the highest figure on record for the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Mexico: a great trading partner

Among the agricultural products that have the largest share in sales to the United States, fruits and vegetables stand out, accounting for 37% of the total value - with tomatoes, avocados and so-called forest fruits, such as strawberries, raspberries, blackberries and blueberries, standing out - in addition to cattle on the hoof and meat, with more than 6 percent.

In the agro-industrial segment, beer stands out, with a share of 13% of the value of exports to the United States, followed by distilled spirits, which mainly include tequila and mezcal, with 11 percent.

Among the products currently in conflict with the United States are sugar and tomatoes, since there are suspension agreements that will have to be renegotiated in 2025 or 2026.

“For the nation governed by Donald Trump, we are also strategic because, in the cases of corn, wheat, soybean paste, as well as pork and chicken, Mexico is its largest buyer in the world,” explained Anaya. “Mexico is in second place in soybean seeds and in the case of beef, we are its third best client,” added the director of the GCMA.

"Tariffs will primarily hurt consumers in all three countries and no one would win, so instead of taxes, a stronger trade relationship should be built, as well as in the areas of health and logistics," the specialist added.

Raymundo Tenorio, professor emeritus at the Monterrey Institute of Technology, believes that the application of tariffs to agricultural products will hurt the pockets of consumers in the United States, as well as producers in Mexico, whose goods will become less competitive due to the tariffs' higher prices.

From their point of view, the marketing companies that complement each other thanks to the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) will also be negatively affected.
"I doubt that Trump will play at hitting consumers' pockets, because it will be reversed, so, in the food sector, the tariff policy would be more measured," said the academic. Tenorio acknowledged that there is more than a 50% probability that the United States will apply a 25% rate to all products made in Mexico, although the other scenario is that it will impose the tax selectively.