Seasonal Agroclimatic Perspective
On January 08, the National Unit for Agricultural Emergencies and Agroclimatic Risk Management UNEA organized the first meeting of this year to analyze the seasonal agroclimatic perspective and its possible effects on Chilean agriculture. Antonio Yaksic Soulé, Head of the Unit, pointed out the importance of analyzing possible climatic scenarios for the forestry and livestock sector, in order for farmers to take the necessary measures to face them.
Among the speakers were Ms. Solangela Sánchez from the Chilean Meteorological Directorate DMC, Mr. Brahim Nazarala from the General Directorate of Water DGA, Mr. Rodrigo Bravo from the INIA Agricultural Research Institute and Mr. Antonio Yaksic, who analyzed the climatic and meteorological, hydrological situation and its impact on Chilean agriculture. Additionally, Mr. Juan Carlos Sepúlveda from Fedefruta analyzed the situation of Chilean fruit growing in relation to the perspective presented.
Given the atmospheric and oceanic indicators presented, there would be no El Niño phenomenon in development, therefore, the rainfall deficit would be maintained for the coming months. The Antarctic Oscillation presents a positive anomaly which indicates that there would also be less rain in the cetrosur zone of the country.
In relation to the hydrological situation, the snow precipitation, consistent with the rains, has been deficient, as of August 2014. The flows, on the other hand, have been lower than last year and in relation to a normal year for the area north-central, not so for the southern zone, which have been higher from the Tinguiririca to the south, in December 2014. Regarding the levels of the reservoirs, there is a generalized deficit for the country, as of December 2014.
Regarding the analysis of the NDVI vegetation index, it is pointed out that the northern, southern and southern zones present normal conditions to date; In the area corresponding to the regions of Coquimbo, Valparaíso and the north of the Metropolitan Region, the area planted with fruit trees presented unfavorable conditions throughout 2014; and the regions corresponding to O'Higgins, Maule and Biobío presented normal conditions in most of 2014, and with a reduction in NDVI towards the end of the year.
On the analysis presented by Fedefruta and the general discussion among the attendees, the perspective in development indicates that the availability of water is not enough in the context of the sustained increase of the fruit area; it is necessary to achieve a balance of water resources between water supply and demand. It is argued that the development of fruit growing, however, has allowed, among other benefits, to increase agricultural employment and reduce soil erosion when performing the cultivation of fruit trees on hillsides. Considering that the present situation is about a prolonged drought, but not the most intense one, it is necessary to devise ways to extract water from different sources (sea, atmosphere, for example). It must be borne in mind that the management or administration of water resources must consider the balance between supply and demand for this resource, since it is a complex problem with multiple users. For this, the formulation of a policy in relation to the management of water resources would contribute to the management of the resource with a long-term horizon.
Finally, it was pointed out that international models bet on the development of a "Child" that would be more intense in the July-August-September quarter of this year. UNEA will continue to monitor the dynamics of these phenomena and communicate their possible effects on agriculture.
Source: National Unit for Agricultural Emergencies and Agroclimatic Risk Management UNEA
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