Peruvian agroexports did not meet expectations in 2023 due to weather. An in-depth analysis of Fresh Fruit Peru shows that despite favorable prospects at the beginning of the year, a combination of heavy rains at the beginning of the year and high temperatures generated by the El Niño phenomenon caused large crop losses, damage to flowering and acceleration of development cycles Of pests.

“The most affected by this situation were the producing regions of the northern and central coast,” stated the consultant.

Widespread demonstrations also disrupted production and exports in the first quarter of the year, particularly of grapes and mangoes.

“After a fairly positive 2022, expectations for agricultural exports in 2023 were quite high. "The international logistics crisis and the limitations generated by the pandemic were left in the past...and the goal was to reach US$11 billion in shipments," Fresh Fruit Peru reported.

“Compared to initial expectations, 2023 has been a bad year. Nothing went as expected and the main destabilizing factor was not the marches and protests – which for the first time in three years did not occur in December – nor the logistical problems nor the lower willingness to spend among North American, European or Asian consumers; The problem of 2023 was the weather.”

In the middle of the year, the objective was no longer to increase exports but to avoid a precipitous drop in the volume of shipments. Fortunately, the consultancy said that international market dynamics - particularly supply shortages caused by climate issues in other parts of the world - have allowed prices to improve and have been able to partially offset the effects of this crisis.

In the first nine months of 2023, agricultural exports decreased 5,6 percent compared to the same period of the previous year, to 7.431 million dollars.

However, some products performed better than others. Avocado exports grew strongly during the first months of the campaign. But they were unable to maintain this pace due to extensive rain damage to the groves and will likely finish the year with similar volume to 2022. Additionally, next year's crop will likely feel the weather effects of this year.

Avocado shipments through October totaled $1.024 billion, an increase of 3 percent over the same period last year. This is expected to continue until the end of the year.

Blueberries, on the other hand, were one of the most affected crops. High temperatures seriously affected flowering from the beginning of the season in April, and shipments through October decreased in volume by 30 percent compared to the previous year. However, higher prices have gone some way to offsetting the decline and exports are estimated to close the year with a 20 percent drop in value in 2022.

Grapes are one of the few products that has not seen a sharp drop in exports during 2023. Peaks usually appear at the end and beginning of the year. Therefore, shipments in the first months respond to those of the previous campaign, so they were not decimated by high temperatures throughout the year.

And the new campaign, which began in August, has started with a bang: shipments through October increased 32 percent over the previous year, reaching $961 million.

Fresh Fruit Peru predicted that grape exports will end the year with growth of almost 30 percent, but warned that an earlier season would mean a sharp drop in shipments in early 2024.

“With 2023 almost over, shipments are getting closer to reaching $10.000 billion. Whether that figure is reached will depend a lot on how advanced the grape campaign is and the prices obtained in the international market,” stated the consultant.

“The current estimate is to close at $9.700 billion. A very similar amount to that of the previous year. Was it a bad year then? In perspective, one could say yes, due to the initial expectation, but given the problems faced, the sector came out well. Now we have to wait for what 2024 has in store for us.”