The surprise and resounding US attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities on the night of June 21 and early morning of June 22 opened the door to the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a possibility pointed out by analysts as the worst-case scenario for the maritime and logistics industry in the context of the Iran-Israel conflict. At press time, Iran's parliament had already recommended closing the waterway through which 20% of the world's oil supply and 21% of its LNG transit pass. However, the implementation of the measure requires the approval of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

However, Iran has strong reasons for not ordering the closure of the strategic waterway, the most compelling of which is that the Strait of Hormuz is the gateway for its oil and gas production, most of which is purchased by China and India, its main trading partners. Furthermore, closing the passage would be considered an act of escalation in the conflict by the West, expanding the geographical areas at war.

In the field of maritime container transport, it has been pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is the gateway to and from the port of Jebel Ali, a key hub for the United Arab Emirates in the Persian Gulf that handled 15,5 million TEUs in 2024. A possible closure would cause a redirection of services, causing a sharp increase in container handling in the hubs Asian transshipment ports outside the Gulf. This situation would inevitably lead shipping lines to charge congestion surcharges on routes to ports that receive cargo diverted from Persian Gulf ports like Jebel Ali.

Furthermore, the blockage of global oil supplies could drive up rates for containerized shipping due to rising crude oil prices, which would impact bunker costs. This would force shipping lines to increase surcharges on their freight rates, not only on routes associated with geographical areas directly affected by the conflict, but also globally.

A warning in this regard is that Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for the oil market, have risen as much as 18% since June 10 in step with the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, reaching a nearly five-month high of US$79,04 a barrel on Thursday, June 19. A figure that will almost certainly be surpassed when the markets open on Monday, June 23. The possibility of the price surpassing the US$100 a barrel barrier is not ruled out.

Possible escalation of the Red Sea crisis

On the other hand, the analyst of the maritime, port and logistics industry Jon monroe, considers it “perhaps inevitable” that, following the US actions, Yemen's Houthi rebels will resume attacks on container ships in the Red Sea. “The confrontation between Israel and Iran is very delicate, and the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz could quickly become two of the world's hottest flashpoints,” he says.

Monroe cites reports that Iran has been equipping the Houthis with advanced missiles, drones and real-time targeting intelligence, turning the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean—“into a high-risk maritime zone since late 2023.”

Monroe, indicates that major shipping lines have maintained a cautious approach. CMA CGM, for example, continues to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, entering the Red Sea—until before the US entered the Iran-Israel conflict—only in isolated cases, despite the escorts of European Union vessels that are part of Operation Aspides. Maersk, meanwhile, announced the temporary cancellation of vessel calls in Haifa, Israel's largest container port in the Mediterranean.

On land, the Israeli Navy recently carried out its first naval attack against Yemeni rebel-held docks in Al Hodeidah on the Red Sea. This, according to the analyst, marks a shift from symbolic drone warfare to a scenario where "the waters of the Red Sea have become a stage of open confrontation."

Insurers increase premiums

Monroe highlights that US insurers have reacted, with premiums for sailing through the Strait of Hormuz soaring by more than 60% and insurance for itineraries linked to Israel being boosted as fears grow.

In short, he notes, “the framework for continued instability is already in place. If Tehran orders its support fleet to block transit routes, we face a significant increase in container ship risk, and costs will skyrocket accordingly. The maritime calm in the region is nothing more than a fragile illusion, and container shipping is in the crosshairs.”