Mexico City. In terms of food self-sufficiency, the chains of Mexico and the United States are closely related: while one needs to import grains, the other requires fruit and vegetable and agro-industrial products, which is why analysts predict that Donald Trump will opt for a selective tariff policy to avoid damage, as far as possible, to his economy.

On Monday evening, Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada on February XNUMX.

The taste of consumers in the United States has triggered the export of berries from Mexico. Photo by Arturo Campos Cedillo

According to official data, Mexico, the United States and Canada make up the strongest agri-food trade bloc in the world, with a food self-sufficiency rate of 112 percent, meaning that 100 percent of the demand of the population of the three countries is produced in the region, with a surplus of 12 percentage points.

These countries have a high level of integration in the agro-food sector, especially in products such as corn, meat and dairy products, generating commercial benefits for all three economies.

Lila Ilianova Sánchez Carbajal, professor at the Faculty of Economics at UNAM, stressed that if the proposals are carried out, they will have unfavorable consequences for Mexico: The United States buys 80 percent of Mexico's exports and is its main trading partner, so an increase in tariffs would imply, for example, an increase in business costs, unemployment due to a decrease in production and a reduction in new investments..

For his part, Juan Carlos Anaya, general director of the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA), stressed that Mexico exports those products in which it has a surplus in terms of food self-sufficiency, such as from the fruit and vegetable and agro-industrial sectors, while it imports products from the grain, oilseed and livestock sectors.

Given the above, it is possible that Trump adopt a selective tariff policy, omitting products from the agri-food sector for the good of both economies, he anticipated.

Carlos Bautista, an international trade specialist at La Salle University, explained that thanks to the trade agreement, tariffs in Mexico, the US and Canada are at zero, meaning that when goods originating in these three countries are imported, no import taxes are paid. Therefore, if there is an increase, it would have to be by tariff fraction and, in extreme cases, by an entire chapter of the tariff rate.

From his point of view, Trump, in order to affect Mexican exports, could increase tariffs in the agricultural sector, but, seeing the need for this type of products in the United States, it is likely that certain exceptions will be made, even through export quotas, that is, allowing the entry of up to a certain quantity of goods with preferential tariffs.

Analysts agreed that the imposition of tariffs by the US contradicts the fundamental principles of the USMCA and threatens the commercial integration achieved between the two countries.