Early on Friday morning, June 13, a piece of news shocked the world. Israel launched attacks against Iran, further deepening the Middle East crisis and generating an escalation of war between the two countries. This has emerged as a new vector of uncertainty on the international stage and displacing trade tariffs as the main factor influencing global economic policy.

This escalation of the war has profound implications for inflation, central bank policies, and financial market dynamics, as renewed tensions in the Middle East are causing a rapid revaluation of oil prices, particularly Brent crude, to reach around $73 a barrel. Forecasts suggest it could reach $120 or $130 in scenarios of disruptions to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a quarter of the world's oil passes.

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The likelihood of tensions in the Middle East escalating into a larger conflict is uncertain. Experts such as analysts at JP Morgan e ING They warn that, in an extreme scenario, disruptions in the Hormuz region could trigger a substantial increase in energy prices, directly affecting the global economy.

The situation is still manageable, and a significant escalation would require an increase in the intensity of hostilities. However, intervention by the US or other actors or an intensification of these tensions could prolong the volatile scenario, affecting confidence, growth, and the stability of global markets. Furthermore, the interaction between geopolitical tensions and economic policies, such as tariffs and central bank decisions, reinforces the complexity of the current scenario.

Fruit export industry

War, whether commercial or an armed conflict, can have significant effects on fruit exports, especially for countries heavily dependent on the export of these products. The main consequences include supply chain disruptions, increased transportation costs, price fluctuations, and changes in consumer preferences.

Furthermore, wars can lead to the closure of ports, airports, and land routes, an increase in ocean freight and transport insurance costs, increasing the final cost of exported fruit. This can make it difficult or even impossible to export fruit to certain markets.

This economic uncertainty and changes in supply and demand can cause fluctuations in fruit prices, affecting the profitability of producers and exporters. In times of conflict, consumers may opt for local or lower-priced products or reduce their consumption of imported fruit, which can negatively impact exports.

What to do then?

The blueberry industry, one of the most sought-after berries in international markets—and therefore one that travels the most—has already experienced a series of challenges and transformations in the context of global war and the tension on the international scene in recent years.

Countries in the Southern Hemisphere, such as Peru and Chile, as well as Mexico and Morocco, major blueberry exporters, have faced and continue to face a complex situation that affects everything from production to distribution and marketing in the world's major markets, including China, a key player in global demand.

However, there are certain actions that the industry must take to protect itself, such as:

• Seek new markets to reduce dependence on a single export destination.
• Establish trade and tariff agreements with importing countries to mitigate the impact of trade restrictions.
• Reduce production costs and improve fruit quality to maintain competitiveness in the global market.
• Request from governments and banks measures to support producers and exporters to address the challenges arising from the war.

The international community and markets must remain vigilant against a potential escalation, which could have lasting effects on global economic stability. Prudent management and constant monitoring of these risks will be essential to address the challenges ahead.