Asia's largest ports are showing signs that congestion is easing ahead of the holiday season, a potentially positive step for key commercial gateways in the US still struggling with a high influx of imports.

Ship transit in the Chinese ports of Shanghai-Ningbo has been recorded to decline by 0,2% from the previous week and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen ship count fell by 10,4%, according to an analysis of data conducted. by Bloomberg News. Singapore, Asia's third largest shopping center, saw a weekly decline of 14,7%, as the delay seen since early November appeared to have largely been removed.

However, the same cannot be said on the other side of the Pacific, as ship queues remained high in Los Angeles and Long Beach (LA-LB). Congestion levels in those neighboring ports increased 6,7% compared to the previous week.

In the early hours of Friday, at least 75 container ships were waiting for a berth to unload, after politicians toured the ports two days earlier, touting a 32% decline in the number of containers that have remained on the docks for more than two days. nine days.

The number of LA-LB container ships has more than doubled since July, while Asian ports have recovered from typhoons and COVID-19

Container disembarkation continues to be a problem for LA-LB ports, as shore-based logistics operators do not pick up their containers quickly enough, and a constant flow of ships arrives to drop off many more, a situation that continues steadily

The White House said the number of containers remaining in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach for more than nine days fell to 87.000 in the week ended Nov. 15, down from 127.000 on Nov. 1. However, analysts were reluctant to consider that the worst of the global supply disruptions is over.

“The odds remain of getting worse before they get better,” Lars Jensen, the maritime, ports and logistics industry analyst at Vespucci Maritime in Copenhagen, said on Friday: “There is still a significant risk of impact on ports due to outbreaks of Covid, especially in China, and there is a risk that further freight growth will put pressure on the supply chain as shippers already begin to rush freight rather than wait for the traditional peak week before Chinese New Year » in the first quarter, Jensen said.

On the other hand, congestion was not evenly reduced in Chinese ports. The congestion rate - the ratio of ships on hold to those in port - rose 25% above average at Tianjin port, while a Covid-19 outbreak at Dalian's smaller port it lowered the number of container ships to a minimum of five ships between April and November.

The port of Manila in the Philippines continues to experience high rates of congestion, with at least 15 container ships waiting to unload, compared to eight at the port. In the United States, Savannah, Georgia, continues to have the worst congestion rate among large container ports, at 87,5%.

What about the fees?

While debating whether the situation has improved or worsened in the ports, it can be observed that, on the main routes, what predominates is the stability of high rates. This can be seen in the composite index of the Drewry World Container Index last week there was a decrease of 0,5% to US $ 9.146,41 / FEU, but it is 238% higher than in the same week of 2020 .

Freight on the Shanghai - New York route gained 3% or US $ 421 to reach US $ 13.139 / FEU. Spot rates on the Shanghai - Los Angeles route grew 1% to reach US $ 10.038 / FEU. However, fares on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route fell 3% or 401 to reach US $ 13.400 / FEU.

Likewise, fares on the Los Angeles - Shanghai route fell 2% to US $ 1.275 / FEU. Rates between Rotterdam and Shanghai (US $ 1577), Shanghai and Genoa (US $ 12.420), New York and Rotterdam (US $ 1.187) remained at the levels of the previous weeks.

Lastly, Drewry expects rates to remain stable this week.

When will rates return to normal?

To resolve this question, Sea-Intelligence carried out an interesting statistical exercise, taking history as a guide, the consultancy reduced the China Container Cargo Index (CCFI) to pre-pandemic data. After that, the consulting firm was able to identify 5 periods of sustained rate decreases, as well as 5 periods of sustained rate increases.

After considering historical data from the CCFI, the consultancy established that the normal rate is represented by rate levels around the index level 1000. During the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, rates fell at the fastest rate of a decline -0,9% weekly and when applying this speed of decline to current rate levels, it would take 18 months to return to "normality."

However, if the rate of decline in the value of rates coincides with the average of the 5 periods of decline, normalization would take up to 26 months. However, when calculating the average of the weekly rate increases in the 5 periods with increases, the result becomes 30 months before a return to the 1000 index, that is, to the desired normality.