Blueberry season of the Northern Hemisphere "is not following the trend", according to director of commercial development of Fall Creek
Delays in Mexico, the southern United States and Spain are causing supply constraints to the world's major blueberry markets. According to Cort Brazelton, director of business development for Fall Creek Farm & Nursery, these supply factors have meant that North America and Europe are "in the process of not having years to reflect industry trends."
Brazelton commented that the very cold weather in the north and center of Mexico has "slowed everything, including blueberries", While at the same time frosts in the southeastern United States and California has also delayed volumes.
"Mexico does not have a large volume in any of the weeks due to its long season as a country: they will harvest for six months"Said Brazelton, who is known for his global blueberry reports based on extensive interviews with stakeholders and for being the co-founder of the International Blueberry Organization (IBO).
But now there have been even fewer volumes outside of Mexico in late winter and early spring.
"What has been really different this year and that is unlikely to recur is that there were major frosts in the southeastern United States and a slight frost in California", Brazelton assured.
"There was a series of frosts. While California reports that they are not as far away as they thought they would be, they are seeing a real disruption in their early harvest".
"What happens is that there is no longer availability of light in the spring. What we expected to have in the springs before the frosts in the southeast and in California were large early volumes because Mexico has been delayed".
The expert explains that to understand the blueberry industry of Mexico it must be divided into three geographical zones: the center of Mexico, with production from the autumn to the beginning of the spring; the north of continental Mexico, mainly of Sinaloa, with production from March to the beginning of May; and Baja California with a season that extends from late winter to June.
The three regions have suffered delays, but this has been felt most intensely in central Mexico since it accounts for most of the production at this time.
"The whole agreement was delayed, but instead of Mexico overlapping with the southeast and California, what they are finding is a fairly open market in terms of volume"Says Brazelton.
"Mexico's quality has been quite consistent due to the weather, manual harvesting and packing in the field, as well as good varieties".
In this context, Brazelton's advice to new producers in the southern United States is to treat the current market situation as an anomaly.
"If you are a new producer in any of these regions, you will not get a season that indicates what the future will be like"Brazelton explained.
"A normal season is when Mexico is actually slowing down and the volumes are really affecting the southeastern United States and California".
He says that the peak of these regions will be as usual between May and early June, followed by a very significant high blueberry crop.
"It is still early but it seems that this should be a very big summer: from Michigan to the Pacific Northwest, everyone is on track to have what would be a normal harvest. Last year was short, so that's important"Said Brazelton.
"The movement of frozen inventories has been significant: we are approaching a minimum of five years in public cold storage inventories, which affects the summer agreement more than the North American agreement in spring"He added.
"It would not be good if we went to the next summer season in North America with high inventories and a great harvest".
He mentions that the delayed supply of Mexico left more space than usual for the late season blueberries of Chile, a country that had a "great year" despite the higher volumes coming from Peru.
Europe: a growing market that could have more affordable prices in 2018
Brazelton says it was interesting to see a slight decrease in Chilean shipments to the United Kingdom last season and more fruit in continental Europe, along with more Peruvian blueberries that also enter the European Union.
"It is a fast growing and reasonably functional market: its qualities are undoubtedly greater. They want closer and fresher when they can get it, even more than the United States and Canada"He explained.
The data on the European blueberry market are not as clear as in North America, with a lack of "active coordination" between producing countries.
But what Brazelton has heard are reports of increased demand from the existing market, as well as higher rates of new consumers and repeat purchases.
"The other point about Europe is that because many retailers have quality guards and varieties, what is very close to them is that the consumer experience is more positive than what happens in the United States and Canada."Said Brazelton.
He also commented that the supply situation does not bode well for the prices received by European and Moroccan producers, but the positive side is that European consumers will soon see more blueberries at affordable prices.
But what has caused this scenario?
"This has the feeling that North America has been quite cold. I can not believe how delayed the Spanish and Moroccan season are"He commented.
"The production region of Agadir in Morocco was not as delayed as others, but things have been delayed in southern Spain and northern Morocco".
These regions generally have peak production between the end of April and May, but now that full peak is restored in 14-21 days.
"If you are a supplier or a retailer, you know it will come, so there are reports of established retail programs at prices that do not reflect the current short market"Said Brazelton.
"You can interpret it in two ways: one, are the buyers who take advantage of the situation that comes, or two, conversely it is a demand before the maximum volumes arrive. There is a strong argument for both«.
"The fact is that, according to European standards, there will be a great harvest in that May window".
Brazelton describes this as a great opportunity to change the focus of the blueberry retail trade.
"It is also a great time for the industry to consider changing the sizes of the packages. As an American, it always amazes me how small the size of these packages is in Europe"Brazelton explained.
"It is exciting to see that there will be some larger packages in the north. I've seen it in the Netherlands, I've seen it in the UK".
"As much as I talk about the price per kilo, people are buying clamshells, they are not buying kilos; they are buying a container, so put more fruit in the container«.
The researcher of the sector of blueberries and specialist in varieties clarifies that the European market has a long way to go in terms of volume, and although the growth is positive, the market is still far from the levels of North America.
"Spain is the largest producer in all of Europe and is significantly smaller than any of the six major producing states in the United States"Said Brazelton.
After the Spanish and Moroccan seasons, the market will transition to supplies of high blueberries from the north and east of Europe.
"What is different is that many of these new sources are going to have cash crops of small to medium size", He says.
"So a few years ago the only real volumes in the summer came from Poland, Germany and the Netherlands, and the Germans ate all their fruit. Northern Italy used to send to other countries, but Italian consumption is increasing so much that a lot of Italian summer fruit goes to that same country".
"Now the suppliers of summer fruit in Europe will include Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, but will also include Lithuania, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine, northern Spain and Portugal, so scattered".
Non-EU countries such as Ukraine and Serbia have the opportunity to export to Russia, and Brazelton says it will be interesting to see how much of their supply goes from east to west.
"My anecdotal observation is that as companies in Ukraine, for example, become more professional, it is often seen that a large part of their fruit goes to the west, as they can go through the hoops needed to supply the United Kingdom and the Netherlands".
Source: Fruit Portal
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