After initial collapses, world stocks and raw materials recovered after Joe Biden's speech

High volatility in the markets yesterday Thursday. The session began with a strong collapse, but the markets began to recover ground after Joe Biden ruled out sending troops to Ukraine, and applied economic sanctions to Russia.

Volatile session in the markets. Global stock markets collapsed at the beginning of the session, while gas recorded a historic rise and oil exceeded US $ 100 per barrel after Russia launched a military attack against Ukraine, something that was feared but not everyone, except Kiev, had warned days before as a certain possibility. However, as the hours passed and Joe Biden's speech brought a respite.

The act represents the largest war in Europe since the end of the Second World War and has generated global concern and, obviously, risk aversion.

La Santiago Stock Exchange which began the day with a contraction of almost 2%, finally ended its operations with a rise of 0,53%.

“A few minutes after 16:00 p.m., US President Joe Biden addressed the world, pointing to a series of economic retaliation, but will not send troops to the conflict area. We estimate that economic retaliation will not be enough and now it is more feasible for Russia to definitively occupy Ukraine," said Guillermo Araya of Renta 4.

Wall Street, the main benchmark in the world, which registered drops of more than 2% in its indicators, after the speech of the US president began to recover little by little. At this time the New York stock market operates mixed.

European stock markets closed with falls of more than 3% due to the situation in Ukraine. The Dax of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the most relevant in that region, fell by almost 4%, and the banking sector of the old continent was the worst performer on the day.

Energy

The price of oil, perhaps the greatest thermometer of the conflict, shot up at the beginning of the day and exceeded the mark of US $ 2014 per barrel for the first time since 100. However, these sudden jumps moderated slightly and at press time Brent rose 2,44% to US$99,17 per barrel, after reaching an intraday high of US$105,79, while WTI registered a rise of 0,99 % to $92,91 a barrel, after peaking at $100,54.

Oil is very sensitive for the Chilean economy since it imports more than 90% of what it consumes. It should be remembered that gasoline prices have risen steadily in the country in recent months and are at record highs, becoming one of the main drivers of local inflation.

“The invasion is a worse scenario than some investors anticipated. That's why we're seeing the backlash,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services. "It caught some investors off guard," the expert added, reported Bloomberg.

“We are importers of these commodities and therefore, it will cost much more to import them. This will go straight to what is inflation and will force the Central Bank to keep track of everything those prices are, and the rate hikes continue to rise. The direct effect is inflation, therefore, the growth of the country, the value of the rates. These are all market effects”, said Jorge Tolosa, Variable Income operator of Vector Capital.

"Oil and gas prices in particular will now remain sustainably high," wrote a team of strategists at Jefferies, including Sean Darby.

And he added that "inflationary pressures will increase further, forcing central banks to enter an ugly tightening cycle."

But it is the gas that most reacted to the complex situation. In fact, it saw an unprecedented increase from the day before logins. However, this increase moderated and at press time it was up 0,95%.

Rising energy prices are a serious issue for Europe as 40% of its natural gas and 30% of its oil come from Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced "a military operation" in Ukraine after the request by the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk to repel the "aggression" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and in the middle of the emergency Security Council that takes place in New York.

“The Donbas people's republics turned to Russia with a request for help. In this regard, I decided to conduct a special military operation. Their goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse, genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years," Putin said in a televised message.

Kiev, for its part, claims that it is a “far-reaching invasion”.

At the same time, the European Union (EU), NATO and the G7 have threatened to implement the "severest sanctions" possible against Russia, said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

“We are going to coordinate, within the EU, NATO and the G7, to launch the most severe sanctions package,” said the official, warning that these punitive measures will have “repercussions” on the German economy.

What will happen? dollar, bonds, gold

With the military offensive launched, investors are now beginning to speculate how far Russia's armed attack on Ukraine could go.

“The market was always trying to judge whether they would stop at Donbass, and it seems pretty clear that they are moving towards Kiev, which was always one of the worst case scenarios. Now we have a long night ahead of us trying to understand what effect all that will have and what sanctions are imposed, because there has to be a new round of sanctions now against Putin and the Russian government, "Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said in a statement. statements to Reuters.

“That's where the worst case scenario is, or the bear case for the markets, and that's what we're seeing. There are no buyers here for the risk, and there are a lot of sellers, so the market is being hit very hard,” she added.

In this context, investments begin to take refuge.

"At this time it is impossible to bet on any scenario," says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at the SwissQuote investment company, for whom "it is the panic in the markets."

According to Reuters, investors poured into US sovereign debt, pushing Treasury yields sharply lower after Russian forces launched an invasion of Ukraine. However, this fall moderated over the hours, and at this time the fall is marginal.

In the London session, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose marginally to 1,451%.

Spot gold was down 0,9% at $1.888 an ounce, after hitting a nearly nine-month high of $1.913,89 on Tuesday.

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