SIMPROC: A local Climate Smart Agriculture initiative

13/12/2017

Despite the strategic importance of agriculture for the development of the country, it is clearly the productive activity that remains more vulnerable to natural phenomena and the impacts of climate change, which leads to large commercial variations of its products in the different markets

According to the "Analysis of vulnerability of the agroforestry sector, water and soil resources of Chile against scenarios of Climate Change", carried out by the Center for Agriculture and Environment, AGRIMED, of the University of Chile, in the future, agriculture must compete strongly with other sectors of the economy for basic natural resources, such as land and water.

Global warming threatens to significantly reduce these reserves, constituting a risk factor in regions where agriculture is heavily dependent on surface water. This fact, together with the increase in the average temperature for the middle of the present century, could displace the current climatic zones towards the south. However, changes can be negative or positive for agriculture. The attenuation of the frost regime would allow to advance in several months the date of sowing of the summer crops, which would allow partially take advantage of the winter precipitations. The fruit trees could extend their cultivation area to the regions of Araucanía, Los Ríos and Los Lagos. Subtropical species could significantly improve their potential in almost all regions.

SIMPROC

To evaluate the behavior of crops against these climate variations, the Simulator of Crop Productivity, SIMPROC, developed by the AGRIMED Center, is used in Chile. The model simulates the growth and production of crops, integrating the main ecophysiological processes and their climate regulation.

One of the biggest advantages of the SIMPROC model compared to other crop models is that it performs the simulation iteratively, that is, the model considers all sowing dates, for each day of the year, and chooses the date that maximizes yield. . In this way, the model gives as a result the sowing and harvest date, which allows choosing the best sowing to inform the potential yield, as well as the optimum sowing date. This iteration, or repetition, allows to determine the possible displacements in the sowing dates that the annual crops could have under new climatic scenarios, which is essential because it would be an error to evaluate the future behavior of a crop assuming that the same date is maintained of current sowing. In the case of fruit species, what represents the greatest mobility is the date of ripening of the fruits.

Climate-Smart Agriculture

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach that helps guide the actions needed to transform and reorient agricultural systems in order to effectively support development and ensure food security in the context of a changing climate. Climate-smart agriculture, CSA, pursues three main objectives:

The sustainable increase in agricultural productivity and income
Adapting and building resilience to climate change and
Reduction and / or absorption of greenhouse gases, as far as possible.

Main features of the SIMPROC model

The SIMPROC model integrates over time the ecophysiological responses of crops to climatic stimuli. Growth is simulated between emergence and harvest. From the interception of the solar radiation and the foliar area, simulates at all times the gross photosynthetic production. Once the respiratory costs are considered, the dry matter production potential is established, a process influenced by temperatures and the availability of water in the soil. By means of a water balance of the soil, the degree of satisfaction of the water demands of the crop is established, which in turn regulates the speed of growth. The model simulates the phenology of the crop from the accumulation of days-grade, variable basis to establish at all times the physiological age of the crop. From this, the coefficient of distribution of growth between the different organs of the plant is modulated, as well as its sensitivity to catastrophic events such as frost, thermal stress and drought. The leaf area of the crop grows until the phenology triggers the senescence, moment from which the area of leaves exposed to solar radiation begins to decrease and, with it, photosynthesis towards the end of the cycle.

Variables of entrance of the model

Climatic Variables: Maximum and minimum temperatures, weekly precipitation, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, relative humidity.
Ecophysiological Variables: Minimum, optimum and maximum growth temperatures, days-grade for development and maturation, sensitivity to frost and water deficit by phenological phases, root depth, photosynthetic efficiency, leaf area-weight ratio, respiration rate of maintenance and growth.
Output variables of the model: Dry matter production, yield of grain, fruits or harvested part, index of leaf area, date of sowing and optimal harvest, water consumption, productive efficiency of irrigation and risks of frost, drought and stress thermal at different times of the year for each species.

Based on updated climate information, production potentials for the main annual crops, fruit species, meadows and forest species are estimated. This represents the baseline for estimating the productive impact of climate changes in the country. The results of the application of the SIMPROC model allow knowing the levels of yield, the seasonality of planting and harvesting dates, water consumption, as well as the risks of frost, drought and thermal stress at different times of the year for each species and commune.

The SIMPROC model is part of the CSA concept, because it constitutes an approach to develop agricultural strategies aimed at guaranteeing sustainable food security in the context of climate change and providing the means to help stakeholders identify, at local levels , national and international, agricultural strategies according to the conditions of each place. The initiation of the AGRIMED Center of the University of Chile, like the CSA, is framed within the strategic objectives of FAO and aligned with the vision of sustainable food and agriculture.

(SIPROC is available to any producer, it is enough to contact AGRIMED of the U. de Chile).

Source: Martín Carrillo O. - Blueberries Consulting