Climate change and its dangerous consequences in agriculture
Scientists from around the world are working to predict how climate change will affect our planet. This study was conducted based on alleged scenarios in agriculture in Illinois, but clearly the scenarios could occur in all parts of the world.
Adam Davis, an ecologist at the University of Illinois and USDA's Agricultural Research Service, explains the details of a new study from the same university, which exposes the different climate scenarios that agriculture will face in the future more and more. next.
Scientists infer the impact on agriculture based on predictions of precipitation, drought intensity and time volatility.
In a previous study, the group developed models that reliably translated past climate data into field work days in Illinois. In the new study, they coupled these models with climate change scenarios to predict days of field work in the future.
The group led the models for nine growing districts in Illinois for two time periods, mid-century (2046 to 2065) and the end of the century (2080 to 2099), using three climate scenarios ranging from mild to extreme.
The models suggest that the typical sowing window for corn will no longer be viable; April and May will be too wet to work the fields in most of Illinois.
"Moving forward, we are predicting hotter, more humid springs, and hotter, drier summers"Says Davis.
Droughty, hot summers are also likely to change agricultural practices, particularly in southern Illinois.
"Drought periods will intensify in the middle and late summer in all climate scenarios".
Any calculation error will be incredibly expensive.
The researcher suggests three strategies to deal with the changes.
Farmers could plant early with long-season crops to maximize yield potential, opting for a pollination window to start before the drought begins.
Or they could choose short-season crops, plant early and then harvest before the drought, possibly sacrificing yield.
The latest strategy will require a more radical change.
"Create farming systems that can cope with increased volatility by conserving soil moisture. Most of the effort in yield stability and resilience is focused on the genetic improvement of crops. That's fine, but I think we've been left behind on the administration side of the farming system".
"If you have an elite cultivar resistant to drought in the same cropping system that does not change with environmental changes, then we are not doing justice to that crop"Says Davis.
Under this context in Illinois of late winters and early springs, this work seems particularly timely.
"All this strange time? It's part of a trend"Says Davis. "TOtime is the time to prepare, because the future is here".
Source: Fruit Portal
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