In January and February it has rained in the southern part of the country, but rainfall deficits remain, from Atacama to the south, except in the area from Araucanía to Los Lagos. Regarding the northern zone, January and February are presenting less and less rainfall in the 2018-2022 period in the regions of Arica and Parinacota to Antofagasta. The agricultural drought is adding more communes to the south.

The communes of Perquenco and Victoria in La Araucanía, Puqueldón and Castro in Los Lagos, and Coyhaique and Chile Chico in Aysén appear with agricultural drought. In the case of Magallanes, except for Timaukel and Cabo de Hornos, all the communes present agricultural drought, being extreme in Primavera and San Gregorio. The hydrological situation is also deficient in most of the country. In addition, the high maximum temperatures typical of this time are added, which increase the risk of fires in the south central zone.

The general forecast for the February-March-April quarter indicates rains below normal from Araucanía to Aysén and warmer maximum temperatures in almost the entire country. It is important to keep in mind what is indicated in this report for agricultural planning, according to the situation of each area, in order to be better prepared for the coming months.

Next months

The DMC forecast for the February-March-April 2022 quarter indicates that we would have rains below normal in the Ñuble to Aysén regions, with a dry season in Atacama and Coquimbo. Table 2 helps us interpret how much it would or would not rain (in total for the quarter Feb-Mar-Apr 2022). For example, it is normal for Chaitén to rain 659,5 to 829,5 [mm] in the Feb-Mar-Apr 2022 quarter (30-year average value, 1991-2020) and given that the forecast indicates “normal to low normal”, then, it could rain less than 659,5 [mm] in that quarter.

Reviewing these forecasts is important, together with the current rainfall situation, to plan the season, especially in dry areas.

In relation to temperatures, the minimum temperatures will be warmer or above normal (red color in the map of the following figure) from the Region of Arica and Parinacota (including the Altiplano) to the regions of Coquimbo and Valparaíso along the coast, adding also southernmost part of the Magallanes region.

Light blue indicates areas that will be colder or temperatures below normal and white shows the areas where it was not possible to build the forecast. On the other hand, the maximum temperatures will be warmer in almost the entire country (red), except in part of the Aysén and Magallanes regions where it is not possible to have a forecast (white).

The category above normal or warmer temperatures stands out, in the case of the minimum and maximum, because they contribute to accentuate the dry conditions in the south central zone and the probability of fires in those zones.

The Antarctic Oscillation, the first days of March shows a negative phase, therefore, rains would be expected in the southern and southern zone of Chile. Then, in the first fortnight of March 2022, it shows a positive phase trend, which implies that no precipitation would be expected in the southern and southern zone of Chile in that period. The descent of the curve at the end of this period implies that there could be rains again around March 15.

The girl begins to say goodbye

Regarding ENSO, it appears with a probability of 76% in the La Niña phase for the February-March-April 2022 quarter (see figure below, blue bar is La Niña phase). La Niña is already beginning to decline and its probability for the April-May-June 2022 quarter is 40%. As of that quarter, the ENSO neutral phase would also begin (gray bars in the following graph) that would continue until July-August-September 2022 with a probability of over 54%.

The set of prediction models, built by the IRI/CPC2, indicates the expected evolution for ENSO in the coming months. The thick blue line shows the forecast that consolidates international models (between -0,5°C and 0,5°C anomaly of SST or Sea Surface Temperature indicates Neutral phase and below -0,5°C Niña phase ). The models agree that there would be a gradual increase in the current SST situation by winter 2022, towards a neutral condition. As indicated in our previous newsletter, an ENSO El Niño phase is not expected, which would traditionally bring us rains in winter, which is much expected for agriculture at that time. Important to keep in mind for agricultural planning.