Russia's invasion of Ukraine will have serious repercussions for suppliers and retailers in the region as fears of a protracted armed conflict grow.

Ecuadorian banana shipments to Eastern Europe are already facing significant disruption following the closure of the port of Odessa, Ukraine's largest seaport, following a Russian airstrike that reportedly killed 22 people. Ecuadorian press reports indicate that a weekly shipment of around 2,5 million boxes of bananas is at risk.

Richard Salazar, executive director of the Acorbanec exporters' association, said the conflict will undoubtedly affect exports in the coming weeks.

"Together, Russia and Ukraine take about 25 percent of Ecuador's banana export volume, so the conflict will have a big impact on shipments," he said.

“The depreciation of the ruble following the decision of the West to impose economic sanctions on Russia will cause a large increase in the price of bananas, as well as delays in payments. Salazar said that exporters were already seeing the effects of the sanctions, while also having to deal with significant logistical challenges.

Odessa, the main port of entry for Ecuadorian bananas, is inoperative after the attack, forcing ships to seek alternative ports.

Shipments that are already at sea are being diverted to Turkey, from where exporters will try to place the fruit in other markets.

"We continue exporting to Russia without problems, for now," added Salazar.

José Antonio Hidalgo, executive director of the Association of Banana Exporters of Ecuador (Aebe), said that exports to Georgia and other countries located on the Black Sea, such as Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Russia, are also affected. due to interruptions in maritime transport services.

He warned that exporters would also face higher shipping fees and insurance payments as a direct result of the conflict.

Acorbanec has asked the Ecuadorian government to introduce compensatory measures to help producers and exporters weather the storm.

Ecuador exported US$697,6m worth of bananas to Russia and US$79,3m to Ukraine in 2021 according to the Central Bank of Ecuador.

Separately, Oliver Huesmann of the fresh produce consultancy Fruit Consulting warned that suppliers and supermarkets across Europe will feel the consequences of Russia's attack on Ukraine in the coming weeks.

"Eastern Europe is a lucrative market for many suppliers and retailers, but it needs stability for sustainable growth," he said.

“Last summer, the Schwarz Group took the risk of appointing a country director for Ukraine, marking a new entry into the last big market. Meanwhile, Lidl planes no longer fly to Kiev and Odessa: Lidl's new CEO, Kenneth McGrath, had to back down in the face of Russian tanks.

“Metro and Globus cannot withdraw so easily because they are already established in Russia and in the case of Metro, also in Ukraine. They are making good money there, at least so far.

Huesmann warned that future profits would depend more on politics than the skills of individual retailers.

“If this conflict is prolonged, we can say that it will have effects on the entire supply of #routes to German, Austrian, Czech, Polish supermarket chains, etc. because they need to optimize their results through adjustments in the purchase prices of their suppliers, who in turn are suffering increases in production and transportation costs due to the dizzying prices of energy and fuels”.