Late summer heat waves could reduce soil moisture in Morocco and decrease water reserves before the 2026-27 growing season, increasing pressure on autumn plantings if rains are delayed.

At the beginning of September, reservoirs held approximately 11.400 billion cubic meters of water, about 1.500 billion less than in mid-May. This decrease is due to consumption for irrigation and drinking water, as well as losses from evaporation.

Drier soils and lower water reserves could delay planting in dryland areas and increase pressure on available irrigation resources.

Heat reduces available moisture before planting

High temperatures accelerate evaporation from reservoirs and increase the water requirements of crops. They also reduce the moisture in the topsoil before the arrival of autumn rains.

The situation particularly affects Moroccan dryland cereal producers, who depend on autumn and winter rainfall to establish crops such as wheat and barley and have few irrigation alternatives when the rains are delayed.

Planting in low moisture conditions can negatively impact germination and initial crop establishment. For this reason, farmers may be forced to postpone planting until the soil is in suitable condition.

Morocco faced a similar situation during the previous agricultural season. In some areas, the sowing of winter cereals was delayed until late December due to the late arrival of rains. The rainfall that month subsequently improved soil moisture and allowed planting to proceed.

A further delay in rainfall during the 2026-27 season, following a hot September, could reproduce some of those difficulties.

Water availability also varies significantly between regions. At the beginning of September, reservoirs in the Moulouya basin were at approximately 56% of their capacity, while those in the Guir-Ziz-Ghris basin were below 40%. In the Tensift basin, the level reached nearly 80%.

Dry conditions affect dryland farmers the most.

Producers with irrigation systems can respond to dry periods by increasing water supply, although this also increases pressure on reservoirs and groundwater. For rainfed farmers, the alternatives are much more limited when rainfall doesn't arrive when needed.

Water availability and efficient use will also be part of the technical discussion that will bring together tomorrow, September 16to the soft fruit industry in Tangier. In the XLIII International Seminar on Red Fruits Morocco 2026Moisés Cohen Amar will address the precision management of water in berry production, a particularly relevant topic at a time when heat and less available moisture are once again placing water management among the concerns of Moroccan agriculture for the new season.

Morocco's agricultural recovery during the 2025-26 season simultaneously raised expectations for several perennial crops. Olive production was estimated at around 2 million tons, 111% higher than the previous season, while citrus production was projected at 1,9 million tons, a 25% increase.

Olive trees, citrus orchards, and other perennial crops continue to lose water during periods of high temperatures and require irrigation in areas where rainfall is insufficient.

The grasslands could also deteriorate if the warm, dry weather continues into the fall, increasing the pressure on farmers who rely on natural grazing.

The September heat alone will not determine Morocco's next harvest. The arrival and distribution of autumn rains will be crucial for recovering some of the moisture lost at the end of summer and establishing new plantings.

If the rains arrive on schedule, farmers will be able to replenish soil moisture and begin the season more normally. However, if the heat persists and the rains are delayed, they could face drier soils, late planting, and a greater demand for irrigation water at the start of the new agricultural cycle.

Tickets are available HERE 

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