A full-blown global food crisis, multiple famines, or protracted food system problems as a result of COVID-19 could create greater humanitarian damage in the next two to five years compared to direct damage from the virus. However, such follow-up seizures can be prevented.

The Atlantic Council GeoTech Center published a data-driven analysis examining “Global Food Security during COVID-19”. This report highlights three specific food safety concerns and presents three solutions world leaders can implement to stay ahead of the negative impacts of COVID-19.

Concern 1: Food affordability

Industry shutdowns related to COVID-19 deprive workers in the informal sector, this lack of purchasing power has made food inaccessible to these workers, which is compounded by rising food prices.

Closure measures, which encapsulate a third of the world's population, have been especially damaging for least developed countries (LDCs) with a large proportion of unbanked workers in the informal sector. If we see an increase in prices along with a loss of purchasing power, mitigating this would require more subsidies, food stamps or other solutions at the government level.

Solution 1: Implement social protection measures

Social protection measures are required to protect purchasing power and ensure food affordability. As of March 27, 2020, a total of 84 countries had introduced or adapted social protection and employment programs in response to COVID-19. However, this has brought challenges. Direct bank transfers have led to long lines at ATMs. Food stamps are an alternative solution that solves many of the above compensations. 

Concern 2: Disruption of global supply chains

COVID-19 has disrupted global supply chains and has the potential to do so even more. Large quantities of seeds, fertilizers and agrochemicals are transported between ports. As a result, ports can form a single point of failure in a complicated system, particularly where a country or region is highly dependent on cargo through a specific port. 

Disruptions in global food shipping and supply affect not only food importers, but also the shipment of seeds, fertilizers, agrochemicals and shipped foods with a short shelf life (fruits and vegetables) more than basic grains.

In addition, many small farmers lack storage to maintain their crops. 

Solution 2: Keep the ports open

90% of the volume of world trade comes from maritime transport, so it is essential to keep ports and ships operating. Threats to stable port operation include:

• Staff illness. 
• A staff strike for fear of catching it.
• If the virus causes food insecurity, the normal flow of cargo may also be affected. 
• Ship quarantines can delay port operations. 
• Delayed port operations and increased pressure on internal transport.

Possible mitigation measures to keep ports open include government recognition that the port and associated operations are vital to food security, and all workers involved are essential.  This means that they must be able to access your workplace despite the blocking measures. Adopt strict hygiene standards in the port and implement medical agreements with the destination port authorities. 

Concern 3: Trade policy

As of April 20, 2020, at least 16 countries have already issued food export restrictions or bans in an attempt to boost domestic stocks and keep domestic prices low. Unlike the financial crisis of 2008-2009, recent harvests in most key grain producers have been good, and the current outlook for the upcoming 2020-2021 harvest is positive. However, the risk remains that individual concerns about food availability will lead countries to rush into protectionist measures.

In addition to export bans that potentially inflate crop prices, most emerging market currencies have depreciated relative to the US dollar due to the virus.

Solution 3: Mitigate food shortages

If declining production cannot be avoided, it may be necessary to increase imports to cover the deficit or to increase production. This will be the case of regions that were previously self-sufficient or surplus in crops. 

This impact will be particularly severe if a previously surplus country or region goes into deficit due to the shock. This is because, when importing, prices must rise to cover the cost of world prices more him freight in the region, while before exporting they reflected world prices less this freight cost.