Historically, the period between the Chilean season and the Florida season was characterized by low volumes and high prices. Today the landscape is very different. Following unusually high prices in February, March and April, caused by a lack of Chilean and Mexican fruit. However, Mexico now reports volumes consistently higher than last year. When combined with early season tailings from Chile and Florida, week 12 (w / e March 22) through week 14 (w / e Apr 5) has seen more volume than we have seen in the past for this time frame.

Historical Volumes

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However, a total increase in volume of 10% during these three weeks last year cannot explain how more than half of the value was removed from the market, from an average of $ 4.91 USD / LB in week 12 (Mar 22) at $ 2.35 USD / LB in week 15 (April 12).

Historical prices (USD / LB)

USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

In this case, there seems to be a strong argument to link a large part of the impact to COVID-19, which is throwing a figurative key into the categories supply chain. This disruption can be seen in the contrasting stories we hear from different markets. On the one hand, many producers fear that their livelihood is at stake, while on the other hand, we see reports that retail sales have never been better thanks to panic buying. In the NABC COVID-19 email dated April 8, 2020, there was a report from IRI stating that the total dollars spent on fresh berries weeks 11 (March 15) and 12 (March 22) increased 32.5 % and 23.5% respectively, down to a 4% increase in week 13 (March 29). And similar trends have been observed in most of the grocery items carried in supermarkets.

The good news is that the increase in demand is real and tangible, consumers have not lost their appetite for blueberries and if week 13 (March 29) is an indicator of where the market is headed, we could expect consumers spend something similar. quantities of blueberries in the coming weeks as they were spending last year.

The bad news is that panic buying happens much faster than supply chains can move. Few could have predicted that the surge in demand would come exactly on week 11 (March 15) and week 12 (March 22), just as Florida surged two weeks before its season would begin.

Florida historical volumes

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Considering that it typically takes about two weeks for fruit to arrive from handlers reporting to the USDA to retail consumers, the timing of all these events suggests that when Florida production finally reached full speed, the supply chain was left paralyzed below the volume of products demanded by the American public. Supply chain complications in turn hampered the ability of blueberries to reach consumers on retail shelves. The effect is that the market was unable to move the volumes of fruit that were available, even when the product was heavily discounted at wholesale from the price drop from week 13 (March 29).

One set of factors to consider as we continue to grapple with the consequences of the pandemic are the logistical obstacles the industry could face. If too many pickers become ill, the consequences have serious impacts at the farm level, yet a significant number of ill truckers, retail personnel, and warehouse workers will have a broader impact on the industry, with potentially dire consequences.

However, to end on a good note, with demand returning to last year's levels, as we saw in the retail data for week 13 (March 29), the insane rush to get products to supermarkets will subside and chains supply seem to be opening up again. This is evident in the price we are seeing for week 16 (April 19), which has even seen a small increase in the last few days. Barring any other complications, the season can look normal again.

Historical prices (USD / LB)

USDA Market News via Agronometrics.