Who is El Niño Costero?
First, to say that this phenomenon is nothing new and has been repeated several times affecting the same areas of the coast of Peru and Ecuador, although only in 1925 and 1957 there were very similar events to the one occurred in this 2017.
"The most similar case is that of 1925, because it is remembered in the history books as a summer in which the magnitude of rainfall and floods affected much of the coast of Peru. Also in 1957 there was a moderate warming of the sea in front of our littoral“says Dimitri Gutiérrez, doctor in Oceanography from the Institute of the Sea of Peru, Imarpe, and coordinator of the technical group of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, Enfen. Today, 92 years later, it is known that this event was very similar to the one experienced in 2017.
Making a recount of recent history:
- 120 thousand affected approximately Piura during the El Niño phenomenon of 1998.
- 6,5% was the negative percentage of Peruvian fishery exports after the 1998 phenomenon.
- USD 1.200 million was the general loss for the Peruvian State in 1998.
- 30 hydroelectric power plants were damaged in 1998, including Aricota in Tacna, and Machupicchu in Cusco.
Who is El Niño Costero?
The climatic phenomenon called The Coastal Child It differs from El Niño because it is due to the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean near the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador, specifically in the so-called 1 + 2 quadrant, which reaches up to five degrees of temperature above its normal value. This warming of the waters causes the humidity that triggers the intense rains, added to the weakening of the anticyclone winds from the South Pacific, which prevents the sea from cooling.
Scientific challenge
El Niño Costero leaves plenty of lessons and homework. The first will be focused on the scientific community of the country, but also of the world, to be able to detect it with the necessary advance that allows to take timely preventive actions.
"The forecast of El Niño Costero becomes a challenge for the entire international scientific communityl ”, says Gutiérrez, because predicting with certainty the configuration of El Niño Costero becomes a complete challenge, even more so because the area of the Eastern Pacific located in front of Ecuador and Peru is particularly a complex area due to the system of existing currents and the effect of the winds.
The Enfen has determined that the duration of El Niño Coastal will be until the end of April and, by then, the phenomenon will reduce its impact of the normal change of the season (Autumn begins on March 20), therefore the decrease is expected of the rains.
Source: Blueberries Consulting - Blueberries Chile
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