In 2021, a strong recovery was observed in container shipping with an annual growth of 9,3% and volumes that reached 171,1 million TEUs. The first and second quarters of 2021 marked significant increases and the third quarter of 2021 already brought a more moderate growth of 6,3% year-on-year, while the last quarter of 2021 saw a decrease of 0,7%, according to data from the GTAS Forecasting Containerized Trade Outlook – March 2022 which, furthermore, forecasts the global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for container trade to reach 3,2% in the medium term (2022-25) and 2,9% in the long term (2022-30).

The world's top five exporters were responsible for 47,9% of global container shipping in 2021, with China in first place with 29,6%. The US stood at 12,6 million TEUs in 2021 (5,8% year-on-year growth) and is forecast to reach 14,5 million TEUs this year (15,0% year-on-year increase). Vietnam overtook South Korea in the world container export ranking in 2021, with a growth rate of 15,4% year-on-year and a long-term CAGR projected to reach 3,5% in the period 2022-30.

The forecast for China's long-term exports (2022-30) suggests an average growth rate of 3,6%, compared to 2,9% CAGR for the US and 2,8% for South Korea. South. The share of container trade exports of the top five countries is expected to expand in the long term and account for 49,8% by 2030.

Record transportation costs and disruptions

The report also captures 2021 supply chain disruptions and massive congestion at ports in North America, Asia and Northern Europe due to the pandemic, introduced restrictions, production stoppages and port closures. The slowdown in port operations has caused delays and triggered record container delivery times, effectively wiping out more than 10% of available capacity globally.

It also highlights record container shipping rates, mainly due to container shortages, which peaked in September 2021 at over US$11.000/FEU, according to the Freightos Baltic Global Container Index.

According to GTAS Forecasting freight rates on most trade routes will continue to increase due to demand for cargo replacement between Russia and Ukraine, and return freight rates will continue to be the strongest routes.

The world's largest shipping lines worked hard in 2021 to make up for the lack of containers in the market and have expanded their capacity by deploying new vessels and ordering hundreds of thousands of new containers to add to the global fleet.

What is coming?

According to GTAS Forecasting, the increase in additional capacity deployed in 2021 does not seem to end very quickly, as the trend continues on major shipping lanes out of Asia, putting even more pressure on already overburdened USWC and northern ports. of Europe.

At the beginning of March, a large amount of cargo destined for Russia was transported by sea, with no guarantee of arrival at the destination port of St. Petersburg. The only chance that it would reach its destination was through transhipment at the northern European terminals, adding to the existing high level of congestion at the main European hubs.

However, as of March 2, Maersk, CMA-CGM, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd suspended their cargo bookings to and from Russia, adding to a long list of sanctions imposed on Russia. In addition, the United Kingdom prohibited Russian airlines from entering its airspace. The Eurasian country struck back and closed its airspace to all European countries, which has fueled increased demand for shipping from Asia to Europe.

Given this, shipping lines do not see any significant relief from congested supply chains outside of Asia in the short term, stating that demand will remain high in the first half of 2022 and gradually slow in the second half of the year.

In North America, they also don't expect any noticeable change by the end of this year, so most likely we'll see a delay in a possible supply chain recovery before 2023.