Recently, Rabobank published a new study illustrating the evolution of the global blueberry industry. The report, entitled "Consistent Quality is the New Blue", looks at world trade patterns and what it portends for the future. Global production grew to nearly 507,000 acres in 2020, and the report notes that production is expected to grow steadily in the coming years.

While the Americas remains the heart of blueberry production, the Asia-Pacific region is expanding rapidly and regions in Europe and Africa are developing.

When it comes to the new growth monster, Peru is the clear mover and shaker. Since the 2019-2020 season, Peru has become the world's largest exporter of blueberries. The good news is that their peak season is September through November, not a Florida market overlap. The bad news, the report says, is that in the future Peru will be able to produce fruit throughout the year.

The two countries that hit the Florida window the most are Chile and Mexico. Chile is now the second largest exporter in the world, but the industry appears to be maturing and its growth has stabilized in the last five years. Mexico continues with its growth pattern.

Behind the report is the idea that the increasing production of the global blueberry industry will increase the continuity of supply throughout the year. Therefore, those price spikes between the start of one region's season and the next will get smaller and smaller. There will always be disruptions in the weather and other factors that could cause a price hike, but you can't count on that year after year.

The void in blueberry volume was long a sweet spot for Florida growers. The report illustrates that the sweet spot will be narrower in the future. It's a bitter pill, but the report offers some suggestions for a sustainable future.

The first is growing consumption. And the good news is that there is a pent-up demand for blueberries all over the world. The report notes: “In terms of consumption, the United States and Canada combined still absorb the largest volume of blueberries, but Europe is now the main source of demand growth. In the same way, China leads the consumption of blueberries in Asia thanks to the growth of its local and imported supply. In other words, the demand landscape is shifting from being North American-centric to having diverse drivers around the world.”

The report also suggests that the consistency of high-quality fruit is critical for the future. That means investing in breeding and planting new varieties that produce good yields and quality fruit. Efficiency will also be key on the cultivation side to reduce costs, and the mechanization of the harvest will be essential. Florida is already moving on that front, growing varieties more suitable for mechanical harvesting. And a well-informed grower tells me that he suspects that about 40% of the state's crop is already being harvested mechanically.

While the report lays out some stark realities of the expanding global footprint of blueberry production, I believe Florida growers will innovate and continue to produce high-quality, sustainable crops in the future.