The relationship between China and the United States is projected to become one of intense strategic competition through 2026. Active diplomacy is underway to prevent escalation, but tensions persist in trade, technology, and security. In practice, this rivalry is not expressed solely through political statements; it also manifests in market signals, investment decisions, technological restrictions, and adjustments to trade rules that ultimately impact third countries.

For Chile, this scenario is not only a diplomatic challenge. It can also influence the business climate and the functioning of supply chains. In export sectors—including the industry of blueberry— where access to markets, logistics and regulatory stability are key — changes in tone between powers are often felt as greater uncertainty and adjustments in costs and operating conditions.

In that context, on January 28, 2026, the Chilean Pacific Foundation held the webinar “China-United States Relations: What Should We Expect by 2026?, focused on analyzing the future of the relationship between the world's two largest economic powers and its impact on Chile and Latin America.

The panel included andrew polk, co-founder and director of economic research at Trivium China; Robert Funk, associate professor of political science at the School of Government of the University of Chile and partner at Andes Risk Group; and Iacob Koch-WeserAssociate Director of Global Trade and Investment at Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The discussion was moderated by Loreto Leyton, executive director of the Chilean Pacific Foundation.

During the conversation, Leyton emphasized that China's increased presence in Latin America has heightened US attention and that both powers are seeking to expand their influence through their own strategies. Along these lines, he stated that a framework agreement to reduce friction and provide greater predictability is still pending, in a scenario where countries like Chile "have a great deal at stake" in the outcome.

The economic front: trade, pressure and the search for stability

One of the central points was that the economy will continue to be the main battleground. Trade and investment operate as tools of influence, but also as areas where both actors have incentives to avoid a total disruption that affects global supply chains and markets.

In this context, it was discussed that trade measures and pressures related to sectors considered strategic could reappear. Even without reaching a breaking point, these signals tend to increase uncertainty and affect expectations, investment decisions, and the business climate.

For agricultural exports, this uncertainty is often reflected in more sensitive negotiations and a more volatile environment. In fresh fruit—and in blueberriesIn a market where competitiveness hinges on sales window, speed, and on-time delivery, the predictability of operating conditions becomes an integral part of the business. Any variation in costs or delivery times impacts the final result.

The webinar placed this discussion within the context of China's expansion in Latin America in recent years—through trade and investment—which helps explain the renewed US focus on the region and its interest in strengthening its influence. Furthermore, the panel argued that technological competition has become a structural axis of the bilateral relationship, with effects that could extend to standards, infrastructure, and the pace of digitalization.

Technology and artificial intelligence: a cross-cutting axis of competitiveness

Another section addressed technological competition as a key factor in the 2026 agenda. Discussions included investment in artificial intelligence (AI), strategies for technological self-sufficiency, and the growing importance of critical technologies in security and economic development.

Beyond the political sphere, this dispute is linked to concrete variables: access to technological infrastructure, component availability, standards, and speed of adoption in manufacturing industries. In sectors with high logistical demands, incorporating data analytics and automation becomes part of the competitiveness equation.

For producers and exporters, the point is also practical. The acceleration of AI and changes in critical technologies are driving the need to strengthen efficiency tools: traceability, quality control, business planning, and data-driven post-harvest decisions. blueberries, Where consistency and quality define competitiveness, digitalization tends to gain weight as an operational advantage, especially when the environment becomes more uncertain.

Points of friction: Taiwan, Latin America and critical sectors

The panel reviewed potential points of tension that could impact the international landscape. Taiwan was mentioned as a sensitive issue that could increase global uncertainty; Latin America as a region where the United States seeks to contain Chinese influence, with a focus on strategic areas; and critical sectors linked to value chains, such as semiconductors, biotechnology, and control of resources relevant to industry.

Although these issues may seem far removed from the productive sector, they often seep into the real economy. They influence investment flows, access to technologies, regulatory criteria, and business decisions. In practice, critical technologies permeate systems that support logistics, monitoring, automation, and services associated with international trade. For fresh fruit, where the cold chain is essential, these kinds of tensions can translate into greater operational variability and increased cost pressures.

Chile and the dilemma of alignment: pragmatism under pressure

From a political perspective, Robert Funk argued that this type of rivalry between powers redefines the international order and pressures middle-sized countries to balance relationships in a more demanding environment. Within this framework, Chile faces a persistent tension: avoiding rigid alignments while managing expectations from both sides.

The analysis indicated that, in practice, countries like Chile will tend to make decisions guided by specific opportunities and conditions, even if these don't always align with the interests of one or another major power. This strategy, however, requires monitoring risks and anticipating scenarios in an increasingly scrutinized regional context.

For the export sector, 2026 could require a more strategic approach to business, not only due to prices and demand, but also because of external variables that could significantly impact the market, such as trade regulations, logistics costs, and the availability of critical services. In the case of blueberryWhere every day of transit and every condition at destination matters, anticipating scenarios and strengthening planning becomes part of the commercial and operational work.