Morocco in drought: Austerity to save the agricultural campaign?

Faced with the terrible drought that Morocco is going through and that threatens the 2022 agricultural campaign, the economist Omar Kettani recommended an austerity measure. For the economist, the Kingdom still has to wait a few weeks before giving up the agricultural year.

Professor of economics at the Mohamed V University of Rabat and member of the Moroccan Association for Studies and Research in Islamic Economy (Asmeci), Omar Kettani estimates that with a production of 30 Mq, we can consider that the year 2022 is lost for the agricultural sector . The current crisis situation as well as the rainfall deficit leave no room for doubt, cereal production will not exceed 35 Mq, that is, one third of the forecasts for a good year.

The economist establishes a forecast around 1,5-2,5% of economic growth. In the event of late rains, the current forecasts could go from 35 to 45 million quintals, which is still lower than the forecasts of the government that has made its calculations, forecasts and programming for a campaign of 80 million quintals. In other words, we are a long way from a normal production year.

Regarding the impact that this drought has had on the government in terms of austerity measures, Omar Kettani believes that the exceptional program drawn up is far from the usual pattern of an austerity policy. For the academic, we must stop trying to make people believe that everything is fine. According to him, the moment is urgent and it is time to establish a policy whose measures affect all superfluous aspects of public spending.

As things stand, Omar Kettani is convinced that Morocco should expect to lose about half of the additional economic growth, ie 1,5% corresponding to 1.800 billion cents. It is unavoidable with drought.

The question is whether an austerity policy would make it possible to recover part of this amount. To do this, the academic advocates a reduction in the salaries of senior officials, a reduction in the benefits granted to them and why not a reduction in the number of public cars.

The economist denounces the silence of the government that prefers to wait for the rains instead of taking restrictive measures. For him, the discussion should revolve around the reduction, or even the elimination, of certain items of public spending.

Omar Kettani also denounces an erroneous calculation of inflation in Morocco, which amounted to 1,4% in 2021. He points out that this inflation, which the government considers imported and therefore controllable, is calculated on fruits and vegetables and not on accommodation. Especially if you take into account the rise in housing prices caused by speculation and the dominance of three companies that do not hesitate to make life more expensive in terms of housing.

Faced with this worrying situation of agricultural crisis, HM King Mohammed VI received at his residence in Bouznika the Head of Government Aziz Akhannouch and the Minister of Agriculture, Marine Fisheries, Rural Development and Water and Forests, Mohammad Sadiki .

This interview is part of the high Real concern for the rural world and all the components of the agricultural sector, especially at a time when the agricultural campaign looks bad due to the lack of rain.

This audience was an opportunity for the Sovereign to commit himself with the government to take all the necessary emergency measures to curb the effects of the rainfall deficit in the agricultural sector, with the hope that a miracle will happen and the rains will fall.

The King has given his high instructions for the Hassan II Fund for economic and social development to contribute up to 3.000 million dirhams to this exceptional program whose global financial endowment is estimated at 10.000 million dirhams.

Note that the program revolves around 3 main axes: the protection of the plant and animal heritage, agricultural insurance and, lastly, the alleviation of financial burdens for farmers and professionals, as well as the financing of any supply operation for the national wheat and fodder, in addition to the financing of investments made with the aim of innovating in the field of irrigation.

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