The container shipping market is showing mixed signals in its spot rates, amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Drewry, “the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 1% […] to US$2.232/FEU,” marking its second consecutive decline, pressured by weakness on the Asia-Europe route. This occurred “despite higher fuel costs and war risk surcharges,” reflecting the difficulty shipping lines are facing in sustaining rate increases in a weak demand environment.

The differences between routes are evident. While Asia-Europe saw declines—with fares from Shanghai to Genoa falling 8% to US$3.071/FEU and Rotterdam 4% to US$2.147/FEU—the Transatlantic route experienced a significant increase, rising 15% to US$2.326/FEU, driven by capacity reductions and surcharges. Meanwhile, the Transpacific route also showed increases, with fares from Shanghai to Los Angeles rising 4% to US$2.934/FEU, while Shanghai-New York remained stable at US$3.562/FEU, amid capacity adjustments by shipping lines.

Regarding surcharges, the conflict in the Middle East continues to have significant effects, although not always enough to support prices. Drewry warns that “fuel costs remain high […] but are not enough to offset the broader downward pressure on tariffs.”

On the transatlantic route, for example, shipping lines implemented a PSS surcharge of US$1.100/FEU, contributing to the aforementioned 15% weekly increase in fares. Similarly, CMA CGM announced FAK fares of US$3.500/FEU for Asia–Northern Europe starting May 15—following a previous attempt that was largely unsuccessful from April 1. Meanwhile, MSC reduced its emergency fuel surcharge by US$15–40 per TEU on services to Northern Europe, the Red Sea, and East Africa.

However, Drewry warns that although “fuel costs remain high […] they are not enough to offset the broader downward pressure on rates,” showing that surcharges face limits in a weak demand environment.

Regarding demand, the impact is particularly visible in flows to the Persian Gulf and the Transpacific route. Data from Vizion shows that “bookings […] have fallen 66% year-on-year” to Persian Gulf countries, demonstrating the direct effect of the crisis. Globally, MSI reported 9,6% year-on-year growth in February, driven mainly by Asia-Europe, but with weaker signs on other routes.

The Transpacific route, in particular, faces a complex scenario. MSI indicates that this route registered a 1,9% year-on-year contraction in February and that “volumes will continue to contract in the second and third quarters,” affected by factors such as tariffs and high standards. Added to this is evidence of weakness in exports from Northeast Asia to the US, suggesting overcapacity in some services.

Despite this, fares on this route have risen in the short term, reflecting active supply management. As Peter Sand of Xeneta points out, “farms […] to the US West Coast have risen 22% in the last month,” partly due to indirect effects of the conflict, which are causing congestion at transshipment hubs in Southeast Asia. In his words, “the crisis […] has simply migrated from regional to global.”

Finally, regarding itinerary cancellations (blank sailings), Drewry reports that 54 cancellations are expected in the next five weeks out of a total of 689 sailings, equivalent to 8%. These are concentrated mainly on the Transpacific East (44%) and Asia-Europe (37%) routes. In line with this, nine blank sailings have already been announced on the Transpacific route for next week, compared to only three on the Asia-Europe route.

Overall, the market reflects a delicate balance: although the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz keeps costs high and disrupts logistics networks, weak demand and limited capacity restrict shipping lines' ability to sustain tariff increases, forcing them to actively intervene in supply management.