In a significant shift in South American trade dynamics, Peru is projected to overtake Chile as the region's top fruit exporter by 2025. According to a detailed report by the General Directorate of Agricultural Policies of the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri)) from Peru, the value of Peru's fruit exports is expected to reach $10.194 billion, slightly exceeding Chile's forecast of $9.979 billion.

This milestone reflects more than a decade of rapid growth in Peru's agricultural sector. Between 2012 and 2022, Peruvian agricultural exports grew at an impressive average annual rate of 11%, almost double the 6,1% recorded by Chile. Figures for 2024 already show a narrowing of the gap, with Peruvian exports totaling $9.185 billion, just shy of Chile's $9.403 billion.

The boom in Peruvian agricultural trade is primarily attributed to its fruit exports, which grew at an average annual rate of 19,6% between 2010 and 2024. In contrast, Chile's fruit exports grew 6,8% over the same period. If this trend continues, Peru's fruit export revenue is projected to reach $11.064 billion by 2027, placing it well ahead of Chile by approximately 9%.

The success of Peruvian fruit exports has been driven by high-demand products such as blueberries and avocados, which have far surpassed Chilean exports in these categories. While Chile still holds a slight lead in table grapes, favorable climatic conditions and improved cultivation practices could make Peru the world leader in grape exports by 2025.

Globally, Peru is poised to become the fifth-largest fruit exporter by 2025, surpassing Chile and placing itself behind Spain, the Netherlands, Mexico, and the United States. In Latin America, this transition marks a significant restructuring, with Mexico, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Costa Rica as the leading exporters. Peru's rise to regional leadership strengthens its role in the global fruit trade landscape.

While Peru's momentum is evident, the report also outlines potential risks that could impact growth. These include changes in international trade policies, climate disruptions, and persistent vulnerabilities in infrastructure and diplomacy.

As Peru continues to expand its agricultural presence, this development not only transforms Latin America's trade dynamics but also underscores South America's growing influence in the global fresh produce economy.