The possible arrival of an El Niño event in the coming months could affect the development of the 2026/27 cherry season and blueberries in Chile, according to bioclimatologist and academic at the University of Chile, Fernando Santibáñez.

The expert explained that climate models anticipate the phenomenon will intensify between June and July, associated with a significant warming of the Pacific Ocean. Although an extreme event is not expected, it could reach sufficient intensity to disrupt typical winter and spring conditions in the country's main agricultural regions.

Among the main threats is the possibility of heavy rainfall during sensitive stages of fruit tree development. Santibáñez warned that the rains could continue into spring and, in some cases, exhibit characteristics typical of tropical systems, with hailstorms that would particularly affect orchards in bloom or fruit set.

This would be compounded by a combination of humidity and higher than normal temperatures that would favor the proliferation of fungi and bacteria.

According to reports, the geographical distribution of El Niño's effects has also changed in recent decades. While historically the consequences were concentrated between Coquimbo and La Araucanía, more recent events have shifted their influence southward. In this context, the O'Higgins and Maule regions appear among the areas most exposed to risk due to the importance of their fruit production.

Current projections also indicate that the phenomenon could extend beyond the end of 2026 and extend its influence into the first months of 2027.

The academic recommended strengthening preventative measures in orchards, especially those with rain covers. He also advised paying particular attention to strategies aimed at reducing the risk of cherry splitting through proper nutritional management and the use of specific tools.

Another factor that could influence the campaign is the irregularity of winter temperatures. Santibáñez warned that the alternation between warm and cold periods can cause physiological alterations similar to those associated with insufficient accumulation of chill hours, even if the required hours are theoretically reached.

He also noted that any warm spells during spring could accelerate bud break in the trees and increase their vulnerability to late frosts. Therefore, he recommended caution when carrying out tasks such as pruning and avoiding applying certain treatments too early to stimulate the trees to emerge from dormancy.

El Niño could also affect fruit retention. The succession of warm days, rain, and sudden temperature drops can affect fruit set and lead to increased fruit drop during the early stages of development.

In this context, the specialist advised caution in fruit thinning, recommending prior evaluation of the behavior of each orchard to avoid additional losses resulting from a premature reduction in the productive load.

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