The improvement in export prices boosts Peru's trade balance, thus a surplus of 1,200 billion dollars was recorded in September of this year, an amount 15.7% higher than the same month in 2022, the Department of Studies highlighted today. Scotiabank Economics.
"With this result, Peru's trade balance accumulated a positive balance of 12,095 million dollars between January and September, an amount slightly higher than our estimate of 11,500 million dollars," he said.
“This result was mainly based on the improvement in the terms of trade, since export volumes were affected by the El Niño Phenomenon (FEN),” he added.
For the fourth quarter of this year, the Department of Economic Studies of Scotiabank expects that the average monthly surplus of the trade balance will decrease slightly to around 1,100 billion dollars due to the expected drop in export volume, particularly flour and oil. of fish and agricultural products affected by the El Niño Phenomenon, as well as by the gradual recovery of imported volumes as the reactivation of domestic demand begins. “Considering this, our Trade Balance surplus projection of $14,678 million, for the end of 2023, has a slight upward bias,” he indicated.
He explained that the terms of trade, that is, the relationship between the export price index and the import price index, completed six months of positive evolution in September. “Although initially this behavior was due to a drop in the import price index greater than the export price index in September, export prices recorded a positive result for the first time since August 2022, basically driven by mining and agricultural products. .
Exports
The Department of Economic Studies of Scotiabank indicated that in September exports reached 5,620 billion dollars, 2.4% lower than the same month in 2022. “At a disaggregated level, revenues from traditional products reached 4,186 million dollars (+1.3%), driven by higher shipped volumes of copper and molybdenum, in line with the higher production associated with Quellaveco, as well as higher copper prices. and gold,” he explained.
On the other hand, he indicated that exports of non-traditional products amounted to 1,411 million dollars (-12%), mainly due to lower volumes of agro-exports such as blueberries and avocados, whose yields have been affected by the El Niño Phenomenon, as well as as well as lower shipments of textiles, affected by excess inventories in Peru's main destination markets such as the United States and Europe.
Imports
It also indicated that imports totaled 4,420 million dollars in September, 6.4% less compared to the same month in 2022. “This result was mainly explained by a lower imported value of inputs (-8.3%), especially for the industry, given the “Drop in the price of fertilizers, plastic products and steel, as well as weak domestic demand, and partially offset by increased fuel purchases, the imported value in September reached its highest monthly level so far in 2023,” he explained. .
He pointed out that a drop was observed in the acquisitions of consumer goods (-4.6%), especially non-durable ones since the stagnation of private consumption affected the demand for goods such as footwear and clothing. “Finally, the lower imports of capital goods (-4%) were in line with the evolution of private investment, highlighting the lower purchases of pick-up trucks, tires and laptops,” he pointed out.
