What do the new "reciprocal" tariffs imposed by Trump on the region's countries mean for Latin America?

Colombian coffee, Peruvian blueberries, Argentine wine, Chilean salmon, and Ecuadorian shrimp are just some of the Latin American products that will have to pay the 10% tariff imposed by the U.S. government on most goods from Latin America.

President Donald Trump announced one of the largest tariff packages in history on Wednesday, ushering in a new era of protectionism that is shaking the foundations of international trade.

So-called "reciprocal tariffs" affect dozens of countries, including some of the world's largest economies.

The whip, however, did not fall equally on everyone. While products from China will have to pay a 34% tax upon crossing the US border (plus a previously decreed 20%), those from the European Union will pay 20%.

The shock has been so great in other parts of the world that in Latin America the news, despite marking a turning point in the history of U.S. trade with the region, was received with relative calm.

Even in Mexico, there was a certain level of optimism because, as they say, they were "saved" from the worst-case scenario. Mexico and Canada were not included in the list of reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump on what he dubbed "Liberation Day." That calmed the waters, although these two countries will face the 25% tariffs Trump previously imposed on steel, aluminum, and automobiles.

In any case, the tax on cars crossing the border from Canada and Mexico into the U.S. will not be fully applied either, as there is a clause stipulating that the fee will only apply to "non-U.S." vehicle content.

Among the least affected

Nearly all Latin American products will face a 10% tariff, the minimum imposed by the White House in this new era of international trade that disrupts decades of a rules-based system governing the imposition of tariffs.

A tariff is nothing more than a tax on a foreign product. Countries typically apply it when they want to protect domestic companies, arguing that there is unfair competition from other nations.

This time, however, the US government broke the rules and unilaterally decided to unleash a tsunami of tariffs on almost the entire world.

Because the offensive was massive, Latin America was among the least affected by the 10% tax, with the exception of products from Venezuela, which must pay 15%, and those from Nicaragua, which must pay 18%, the highest tax in the entire region.

Who pays the tariff? It's paid by the US importer at customs when the product crosses the border. The direct effect is to make the product purchased by the end consumer in the United States more expensive.

What worries Latin American exporters is that, since the price of their products will be higher when they cross the border, they will sell less, and this will ultimately affect investment, employment, and growth in the region.

But fears don't just stem from the blow to exporters. The new US tariff war has caused uncertainty in the markets, a pause in investment, doubts about the future of the exchange rate, and anxiety about how the most affected countries will respond.

Despite the storm, "it seems the region is better positioned than the rest," says Joan Domene, chief economist for Latin America at Oxford Economics, speaking to BBC Mundo. Still, he adds, "we're going to see a global slowdown in trade."

Many analysts are anticipating this economic slowdown in the United States, one of the region's main trading partners, something that will directly impact Latin American economies.

Economies are so interconnected that if growth slows in the US or a recession occurs, Latin America will feel it. But for now, it's unknown what will happen in the coming months as the pieces of the international trade puzzle begin to come together.

Felipe Hernández, Latin America economist at Bloomberg Economics, comments that the tariff for the region's countries "is a step backward" compared to their previous situation.

However, Latin America remains in a relatively favorable position compared to other regions of the world, he explains. "There's an opportunity opening up in Latin America to gain market share in U.S. imports at the expense of other countries."

However, he says, it's important to keep in mind that "the US economy is expected to grow much less," and that will affect everyone.

Tariff-free products

Although the base tariff is 10% for most Latin American products entering the United States, the White House reported in a document that the new tariff policy includes exceptions.

Among the products that—for now—will not be subject to the tariff are copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, wood products, gold bars, energy, and other minerals not available in the United States.

Oil sector experts consulted by BBC Mundo believe that by excluding the "energy" category from the tariffs, oil exports will presumably not be affected.

Since no further details have been provided, the governments are also uncertain on this point and are awaiting bilateral meetings with members of the White House to gain further certainty.

If oil and other Latin American energy products are effectively exempt from the new tariffs, the effects in the region would be more focused on sectors such as agribusiness, although everything depends on each country.

The case of Colombia and Argentina

In Colombia, the main products exported to the United States are coffee and flowers, as well as processed foods, chemicals, and manufactured goods.

Although Colombian President Gustavo Petro initially did not celebrate Trump's tariffs, in a sudden about-face, he declared on the social network X that they are positive.

"Latin America, including Colombia, benefits from Trump's tariff policy, first and foremost. But Colombian businesses must know how to take advantage of things," he said. If some products become more expensive in the US, "and if we can produce those goods more cheaply, it's time to export there," he added. "We will only make US imports more expensive if they take away our jobs."

The Argentine government also expressed a positive response through its spokesperson, Manuel Adorni, who on Thursday highlighted the "wonderful relationship" between Argentina and the U.S.

And President Javier Milei published a link to the Queen song Friends will be Friends on X, despite the fact that the markets did not welcome Trump's tariffs.

It was reported that Milei could announce a possible agreement with President Donald Trump on Thursday night to reduce tariffs on Argentina to zero. Argentina's main export to the US is fuels and mineral oils, followed by aluminum and alcoholic beverages.

What's happening with Peru, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador?

In Peru's case, although China is the main destination for Peruvian exports, the United States is in second place. It is estimated that the tariffs could affect sectors such as clothing, non-metallic mining, and agribusiness.

Peruvian blueberry producers were dissatisfied, given that the main export market for this fruit is the United States, and despite the fact that both countries have a free trade agreement, the pact did not save Peru from the tariffs.

The Lima government announced it will ask the Trump administration to reconsider the tariffs in the coming days. Some local experts said that, despite the potential harm the measure could cause to sectors such as the textile industry, it could open up opportunities for Peru compared to other countries that have been subjected to higher tariffs.

So, despite everything and depending on the product, Peru could continue selling at a lower price than other competitors.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stated Thursday that his government will confront "any attempt to impose a protectionism that no longer exists in this world" and will take "all possible measures" against Trump's tariffs.

"We defend multilateralism and free trade," Lula said.

He also assured that the response to the tariffs will be given with reference to a law approved Wednesday in the Brazilian Congress, which authorizes retaliation in such cases, and also within the framework established by the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Brazil exports products to the U.S. such as crude and refined petroleum, semi-finished iron, soybeans, iron ore, sugar, and corn.

In Chile, the agricultural and fishing sectors could be among the hardest hit by the tariffs imposed by the White House.

Products such as salmon, grapes, and wine have been exposed to unilateral tariffs imposed by the world's largest economy.

The decision "has an undeniable impact on a small, globalized country like Chile," said Susana Jiménez, president of the Confederation of Production and Commerce.

Despite the potential negative impact the measure could have on the Chilean economy, the White House decided to exclude two key Chilean products from the tax: copper and timber.

That made the blow less severe, although a potential copper tax in the future is an option still on the table in the Oval Office.

In Ecuador's case, shrimp, bananas, and cocoa are some of the products most affected by tariffs.

Business sectors in that country said they are "urgently" evaluating ways to mitigate the impact of the measure, while the government indicated that it will continue to promote closer relations with its main trading partner.

Central America in the spotlight

Among the countries in the region most affected by the tariffs announced Wednesday are those in Central America, due to their high dependence on the U.S. market.

The governments of that region have said they are analyzing the situation and, for now, have not made any decisions on how to move forward.

Although they are part of the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA), the U.S. government's decision did not exempt them from the new tariffs.

Although the trade damage could be quite profound, countries in that region emphasized that the 10% tariff was the lowest tariff applied by the U.S. government globally.

"If the tide rises and lifts all boats at the same time, then it's a new reality. They're not punishing us in that sense," said Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves.

In an analysis, Citibank said Honduras, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, and Panama are some of the most vulnerable due to the trade imbalance with the U.S., migration and drug trafficking, dependence on remittances, and other factors.

Targeted changes to some Latin American products are possible in the coming weeks and months following negotiations between regional governments and the White House.

So far, most countries do not appear to be planning to retaliate against the U.S.

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