The 2017 will remain dry

09/02/2017

The weak La Niña phenomenon tends to dissipate to a neutral period, which means that during the remainder of the summer there is little rain. Although it is still early, it is projected that the year could come again with rainfall below normal, as in the 2016.

The fires that devastate the south central region of the country show the strong drought that the area has experienced -as well as others in the country- in recent years, where even communes not affected by fire are without enough water for irrigation , since the 2016 was a year where the rains needed to spend the season (except in the northern regions) with enough water to cover the entire surface did not fall. The hope of many farmers is, then, put into the next winter. However, according to experts next season would not look very different from what we had in 2016, with rainfall below a normal year.

Experts are clear that it is still too early to predict results for this year. However, the high pressure conditions that exist in the Pacific already allow us to anticipate that this year will be complicated. "Taking the history of the last 140 years of climate records, this is going to be a year very similar to the past, with below-normal rainfall," says Carlos Gana, deputy manager of Anasac Studies, and agroclimate consultant. And the culprit, he says, will be the La Niña phenomenon, or rather that it will not develop or will do so weakly, as happened between July and December 2016.

2016, a weak girl

The 2016 was erratic in terms of rain and snow. Thus, for example, in the north of the country, where for several years the lack of water and snow distressed the farmers, last year, they received enough so that today their reservoirs are practically full, which in some of them , like the Lautaro, it had not happened for 20 years ago. However, in the south center, the reality was completely opposite. Thus, for example, farmers who irrigate with the waters of the Maule River, only have an 35% of what would correspond to them.

In fact, according to the report Agroclimatic Coyuntura of the sub-department of Information, monitoring and prevention (IMP) of the Ministry of Agriculture, it is indicated that, except for the regions of Arica and Parinacota, Valparaíso and Punta Arenas, the 2016 ended with deficits between the 24 and the 81% precipitation and which was characterized by the disparate distribution of them throughout the year both in the center and in the south of the country.

But not everything was so bad, according to Carlos Gana, who says that the agronomists between Temuco and Puerto Montt were happy, because although it had rained less, the rainfall was once a week. This because it allows to maintain a good humidity in the crops.

«Further south, in the middle of Patagonia, the water that fell was totally within normal and expected«Adds Gana.

The causes behind the previous thing was that at the beginning of the year, the phenomenon of El Niño, lived during the 2015, came to an end -between the months of April and May-. The prognosis was that then La Niña would enter, but after three months of neutral period, she was present but only weakly.

According to information on the website of Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), current atmospheric conditions across the Tropical Pacific are also consistent with weak La Niña conditions... The report adds that both the winds, cloudiness and rains continue to suggest La Niña conditions. «The set of prediction models indicates that the phenomenon is in the process of dissipating and returning the condition to neutral in February«.

For the remainder of this summer 2017, Gana emphasizes that «it's not that you expect a rainy summer«.

Winter with less rain than normal

What will happen the rest of this year will depend, again, on the climatic phenomenon. For Gianfranco Marcone, meteorologist of Chile Weather, everything will depend on what happens with La Niña and the strength with which it occurs.

The IRI website shows that for the January-April quarter, the projections indicate a higher probability (90%) to a neutral state, while the La Niña condition reaches an 8% and El Niño an 4% on average, explains the Dr. Luis Morales, from the Research Laboratory in Environmental Sciences of the University of Chile.

At this time, the condition could be classified, experts say, neutral. Therefore Marcone argues that if it is reactivated, there could possibly be low rainfall and temperatures during the winter.

According to Carlos Gana, the projections are that in the central zone this winter it could rain between 20 and 40% less than in a normal year. In other words, if in Santiago it normally falls 300 mm, this year it could be expected that it will rain 250 mm. In the south of the country there will be a similar situation, if in Temuco it rains 1.100 mm this year it could rain 800, all this forecast is focused on the times when water falls in our country, May - October.

«Between Copiapó and Puerto Montt it will rain less. The regions that would have more impact to low rainfall are between the III and Metropolitan Region, since these areas have reservoirs, in addition snow accumulation is required, therefore if instead of raining 300 mm fall 200 mm, it is very noticeable«, indicates Gana.

Morales explains that, according to IRI information for the rest of the year, "we can observe that a high probability of a neutral condition will remain until May-June, where it will decrease significantly. Later the probabilities of Niña and Niño will increase, but towards October their probabilities will still be low, 22% and 39% respectively, with the Niño being higher but the same as in a neutral year. "Everything would indicate that this year we would be, in average terms and with the forecast to date, in conditions of a normal year with a slight tendency towards Niño (high temperatures and intense rains, but little snowfall)."

Source: Revista del Campo