The berries in front of a dream season
At the recent Anuga 2015, in Cologne, Germany, one of the main food fairs in the world, Antonio Dominguez, director of Chilealimentos and president of Nevada Export, verified the growing trend of consumers for organic berries. He was repeatedly asked about these productions and not only people from the United States, who are the traditional customers, but also European buyers. Apart from the interest for organic berries, of any of the fruits that make up this category, there was also a lot of expectation for the harvest of Chilean raspberries, which shows that the country continues to enjoy a good reputation as a supplier of processed berries.
Meanwhile, the producer and one of the owners of exporter Bluewave, Juan Pablo Hube, from the United States, states that prices for fresh blueberry are very good, which promises that returns will remain high this season just beginning.
Production and industry sources had a single voice to define the current season as one of the good ones, as long as the current unstable climate - which is already a relevant factor and which in the central zone has been characterized by rain and Heat periods - do not cause problems in the fruit beyond the manageable. The good current prices in the main markets will help this result.
An expectant panorama for the two main species of berries that are cultivated in the country and to which is added that the productions of the northern hemisphere had an important fall, which is among the causes of the good prices that are glimpsed.
Growing actor
Studies of Chilealimentos allow to quantify that the world market of exports of berries throws a value close to US $ 8.300 million, with a growth of 165% in 10 years. To that figure we would have to add about US $ 1.000 million from other products that it is not possible to isolate from international trade figures, such as juices, dehydrated, preserved and some frozen.
This leads the entity to point out that the total market of berries must be several times higher than the foreign trade figures already noted, because the domestic sales of each country, as well as the raw material used in the preparation of food based of berries, are very significant and are not available in reliable systematic studies.
Thus, Chile in the global concert of berries exports represents the 9%, with an export distribution that in 2014 was 52% of fresh berries and 48% of berries processed, with total figures of 193.600 tons shipped in 2014, and returns for US $ 776,5 million.
Of course, within the category of fresh berries, practically the only product that Chile exports is cranberry. The others, although they exist, have no relevance in total sales abroad, even though there are many species present in our country.
Meanwhile, in processed berries the main product is frozen, with 85% of the total. The following are in order of importance: canned products (8%), juices (7%) and dehydrated (less than 1%).
Up to 106 thousand ton
Carlos Ferrer, berry export adviser, points out that the Chilean season started late, due to the weather and specifically the spring rains in the central zone, which means that the important Chilean volumes will be noticed in just one more month , that is, in mid-November.
"The climate is the great unknown that we all have"He says.
It means that when it rains, temperatures drop and, therefore, the fruit takes longer to mature to be ready for harvest. "There has been loss of flowers and that is going to mean loss of fruit, but it is not a thing that is still far from dramatic, it is relatively normal for this time of the year", he adds.
In addition, ensures that the blueberry is a species that remains very well in adverse weather conditions, since its origins are north of the United States.
Andrés Armstrong, general manager of the Cranberry Committee, agrees with that assessment.
"We already see a delay compared to the previous season. Until Sunday 18 in October we are 22% lower than last season, but within the expected for a normal season. The rains do have an impact on the harvests, since they force the producers to change the rhythm. If it is raining it can not be harvested and it is necessary to wait for the fruit to dry to begin the work again. Some loss is caused by this effect, but we believe that it is not very important yet "He says.
The committee's projection to the 30 in September is a growth over last season in a range between 7% and 19% more volume. "Climatic events made us adjust our estimates in 3%", Anade.
According to that, they expect a production between 96 thousand tons and 106 thousand, considering the youngest plantations that have not yet completed their growth process and do not reach the maximum of their productive potential and also to a recovery of production in the VII Region. , that in the last season was still under the effect of the September frosts of 2013, according to the report delivered by Armstrong.
For the consultant Carlos Ferrer, the expected growth "would be quite poor" although it could be different, everything will depend on the climate.
The chairman of the Committee of Blueberries, Felipe Juillerat, clarifies that the estimated growth in exports of fresh blueberries to all target markets has been given that rank "Because the industry has wanted to reflect a figure that is subject to revisions, according to climatic factors and others that could potentially affect production and harvest. This estimate is at the 30 in September and there is already concern about the repercussions that the El Niño phenomenon is having at the beginning of the export season ".
For the executive director of iQonsulting, Isabel Quiroz, although blueberries are not growing in plantations, in recent years there has been much replanting with more productive varieties than the first ones planted in Chile.
"From that point of view, we are going to see growth. The production range estimated by the committee is under the potential, which is 198 thousand tons, but the climate has been important in the last time to determine the volume and quality of the blueberries ... As this year we expect more rains in October, November and December, it is possible that the fruit of the VI and VII Region is more affected in terms of its consistency. And two things are going to happen there: it is unlikely that fruit will be lost in the rain, then on the one hand if it is very ripe at harvest time and a rain falls, it is most likely that it will be sent to the frozen one, and the other thing is that in some items, to ensure a good arrival, there will be a greater demand for air transport ", says Isabel Quiroz.
Demand and prices
The president of the Committee of Blueberries emphasizes that they continue seeing an important demand in all the markets, also that each market has grown year to year in his demand and, therefore, during the season always the demand by blueberries is by on the offer.
"The picture looks very good. Today the prices are sky high, but until Thursday they paid prices of up to 42 dollars for the two kilo box, which is absolutely incredible, but as a result of which Chile has nothing yet to offer and that Argentina has had a very bad start to the season, with very bad weather conditions in Tucumán and Concordia, which has meant that the volumes that are reaching the market are minimal. Then, that has generated these spectacular prices "comments Carlos Ferrer.
Juan Pablo Hube, from Bluewave, goes into the reasons why fresh blueberry prices are so good.
"Argentina has had many climatic problems, which has left the United States in short supply and, therefore, blueberries are selling very expensive at this time in that market. Europe still does not enter as an actor, since they are still with fruit saved from the Polish season and, for the same reason that Argentina, not being supplied, must make the cranberries last ", Señala.
Hube adds that Peru has been exporting on a regular basis to all markets. "You can find cranberries from them in Europe, the United States and in Asia, but nothing that will make Chile very noisy. In Asia is where we could be competing more as a country, but because the Peruvian fruit does not have flavor and, because of phytosanitary protocols that do not have and we do have - China, South Korea, Japan - is not doing us any bad play yet. The natural market for Peruvian blueberries is the United States, and the natural market for Argentina should be Europe. But as both are with little volume this season, we have very high prices even in all markets and it seems that the United States is going to have very good results this season ", he adds.
For these reasons, the Bluewave specialist concludes that demand seems to be high from start to end of the season in all consumer markets. Only Asia sees it a little weaker, due to the economic problems it has and the devaluation of its currencies, mainly in Korea and Japan. In these two countries it is anticipating that they will be a bit more conservative in the growth of fresh blueberry imports this season.
It also sees as factors for this season of very good prices, in addition to the problem of Argentina, the non-acceptance of Peruvian fruit for flavor and an effective blockade for the entry of this fruit to China via Hong Kong without phytosanitary protocol.
"All markets have exhibited significant growths season after season, led, albeit from a small base by the Asian market (China as the most important in the region). Europe also continues to grow very important, and within Europe, England continues to lead. But at the same time we can not ignore our large market that is made up of the United States and Canada, which consume the 67% plus our fresh exportable offer ", highlights Felipe Juillerat.
He adds that India, undoubtedly, is a market that they look expectant and anxious waiting for the agreements that allow the beginning of the landing of the Chilean blueberries to materialize.
Also those processed
In about two dollars per kilo, Felipe Rosas, executive director of Rconsulting, estimates that the producer price for raspberries will be frozen this season. The figure is similar to the one anticipated last May by this professional.
"My impression on raspberries is that, due to the drought in Poland, where the harvest dropped by half and ended abruptly due to snowfalls, they caused the price to go up, particularly crumble quality, which is not the best, but it was because of the limited existing offer. IQF quality fruit there, since Serbia produced more; however, prices also went up a bit ", says Rosas.
In addition, the United States produced 30% less for processing, but the price remains higher and almost similar to last year.
Regarding what will happen in Chile with the complex spring that is affecting some fruits, he points out that the harvest of the raspberries will surely be delayed, but it is still early to affirm the impact it will have on production.
Rosas believes that there will be a consistent demand from the processors.
Considering the swings of the dollar, he dares to give a producer price forecast in dollars and not in pesos. Estimates that it will be close to US $ 2 / kg, considering that external buyers will not be willing to pay crazy prices, if this fruit can be replaced by others. Anyway, the figure has the producers very smiling.
The United States will set the tone for the price of the IQF product - it keeps the structure of the frozen fruit - and for sure the prices will be at levels of US $ 4.500 / ton and US $ 3.500 / ton of crumbles in Europe.
"All of the above is being translated once again into higher prices ... That I catalog very bad for the industry in the medium term. It may be good for producers in the short term, but because the price is so high, substitution for other fruits begins in the markets, and then demand decreases for some years, and it costs to recover it ... But the market is the market and Chile with its volume there is little that can influence ", says Antonio Domínguez, director of Chilealimentos.
In the case of the blueberries that will be processed, Rosas points out that in spite of the fact that in the United States there is little A or premium quality stock, and the production of wild blueberries in the eastern United States. and Canada fell, the price in Chile will depend on the weather conditions in harvest.
"The rains mean not being able to export quality in fresh and greater availability for frozen, as well as all the organic from the VIII to the north will be processed -by the lobesia that forces to fumigate the fruit-. The most likely, then, is that the producer price moves in the range that it did in the US, that is, US $ 1,4 to US $ 1,7 / kg ".
He emphasizes that this value could be higher if a benign summer for the fresh blueberry was produced, but the situation is complex.
For strawberries the price will be, according to Felipe Rosas, between US $ 0,85 and US $ 0,90 / kg, while for blackberries it is still early to make forecasts, given that it is close to knowing the offer of Serbia and the US. Of course, both harvests were practically normal.
According to Guillermo González, general manager of Chilealimentos, a trend in exports of processed berries that is occurring in Chile is the export of infused fruit, which is extracted juice and added other juices or natural sweeteners, with which makes a great range of new products.
"The fruits are harvested, the juice is extracted, practically resulting in a raisin, which is then added with juices of other fruits and / or glazed, leaving at the end a practically preserved product. It can also be used directly with dehydrated, in the case of lyophilized ", says González.
Another line that will continue to grow is that of frozen organic blueberries, which are the ones that are most affected by lobesia.
"Today we are talking about a price of fruit to freeze in organic from 3,80 dollars, which is a spectacular price", warns Carlos Ferrer.
52% of fresh berries and 48% of processed was the distribution of exports in 2014, with total figures of 193.600 tons.
106 thousand tons would become the production of blueberries for this season. That's if the weather does not play tricks.
Source: Revista del Campo
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