Even though the world's attention is currently focused on the United States, it is still crucial for Peru not to lose sight of the performance of the Chinese economy, which is currently generating uncertainty.

One third of Peruvian exports are destined for the world's second largest economy. And, according to estimates by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), each point of decline in China's GDP would cause a setback in the local economy of 0.82 percentage points. "What happens with China is extremely important for Peru," summarizes the chief economist of Credicorp Capital, Daniel Velandia.

The fact is that the projections for 2025 for the Chinese economy point to figures lower than the 5% recorded in 2024. The IMF anticipates an expansion of 4.6%, while BBVA stays at 4%. “China has already left behind the times of [growth rates] of 8%, 9% or 10% and is now in a process of deceleration, more due to structural problems than cyclical ones,” explains Hugo Perea, chief economist for Peru at BBVA Research.

The Asian giant is currently facing difficulties in its real estate and financial markets, as well as an oversupply in its economy. And to this we must add the risk of a trade war with the United States. That impact is yet to be seen, but in the worst-case scenario we could be talking about tariffs of 60%, which would subtract one point from China's GDP, according to BBVA estimates. This lower growth, in turn, would impact the demand for copper and, consequently, its price, as the former Minister of Economy, Luis Castilla, warns.

The most pessimistic scenarios, with China growing at less than 4%, would undoubtedly have a severe impact on the Peruvian economy. However, Chinese authorities are expected to announce new fiscal and monetary economic measures in March. “I think they will do everything in their power to avoid or mitigate a fall in their economic growth,” says Castilla.

For his part, Elmer Cuba, a partner at Macroconsult, maintains that today the risk that a trade war between the US and China represents for Peru is more limited. The growing demand for copper for electromobility projects would support the price of the metal, he points out.