In fact, MSC has already announced a general rate increase for November on the Asia-Europe route.

The decrease in volumes scheduled for October and November, due to the early start of what was the peak season, is causing the average spot freight rates on the Transpacific route to fall. According to Xeneta, from US$8.023/FEU at the beginning of July to US$5.401/FEU at the end of October. Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) also of the low account detailing that the spot rates to the West Coast of the USA (US$5.294/FEU), are currently 35% lower compared to their peak in July, while, at the same time, US East Coast (US$5.935/FEU), they are 38%, as was confirmed MundoMaritimo. 

It should be recalled that shipping lines operating on the Transpacific route responded to strong demand in the third quarter by deploying 19% more capacity compared to the second quarter of 2024 and 17% compared to the third quarter of 2023, according to Sea-Intelligence, a fact that for xeneta This, together with lower volumes, would be influencing the current decline in rates.

However, looking ahead to November, there appears to be little change in the capacity offered by shipping lines on this route, even considering some announced cancellations of itineraries, a situation that if maintained would facilitate the downward trend.

However, at this point it is worth paying attention to Judah Levine, head of analysis of Freightos, who emphasizes that even with declining demand and lower-than-second-quarter volume projections for the coming months, rates on the Trans-Pacific route are still US$1.500-US$2.000/FEU higher than during the previous Red Sea crisis in April.

Either way, US importers have a lot to consider in the coming months, particularly with the upcoming presidential election and the possibility of a push for new tariffs on imports from China. There is also the looming threat of a renewed strike at ports on the US East Coast and Gulf Coast in January, which may also have repercussions on the West Coast.

Routes to Europe

Meanwhile, according to the FBX, spot freight rates on the route Asia-Europe fell to approximately US$3.500/FEU last week, which is 60% lower than the peak in July and almost equal to the April low recorded for this route. Asia-Mediterranean Rates fell 3% to US$3.927/FEU last week, which is 50% lower than in July and US$400/FEU lower than in April. At the same time, capacity losses due to Red Sea diversions still keep these rates at roughly triple their level a year ago.

However, with rates falling due to lower demand, shipping lines have begun to increase the number cancellations of itineraries (blank sailing) on Asia-Europe routes, a measure that would aim to slow the decline.

However, there are signs that shipping lines are hopeful that rates will soon recover:

• The ports of Hamburg and Felixstowe are still dealing with some congestion.
• There remains a certain concentration of vessels in Shanghai, although queues in Qingdao and Ningbo have decreased.
• The pre-Chinese New Year demand surge is also anticipated to start early in November as European importers still need to consider longer transit times around the Cape of Good Hope.

In fact, MSC announced a November General Rate Increase (GRI) to boost Asia-Europe rates to US$5.000/FEU and others are expected to take similar steps.