Proarándanos reduces its projection for Peruvian blueberry exports to 382 tons

The September estimate is down 6% compared to August, even though Peru has accumulated 95 tons through week 35, 48% more than a year ago. The adjustment is concentrated in the middle and final stages of the season and reduces the expected peak week to 16,5 tons.

10/09/2026

Based on updated information provided by producers and exporters, Proarándanos has lowered its fourth projection for fresh blueberry exports for the 2026/27 Peruvian season to approximately 382 tons. The previous estimate, published in August, was 404 tons. The association attributes the adjustment, close to 6%, to worsening weather conditions compared to what was anticipated in that update.

The correction comes after a campaign that began with higher volumes than last year. Through week 35, Peru had exported 95 tons, 48% more than the 64 tons recorded at the same point in 2025/26. This cumulative total already represents 25% of the new projected closing figure, compared to 17% at this same stage of the previous campaign.

The new estimate thus modifies the closing expectation. While the August projection still anticipated an increase compared to 2025/26, the September calculation leaves the result practically in line with the previous season, which closed at around 383 tons.

Lower expected volume since week 36

The adjustment is mainly in the remaining portion of the campaign. From week 36 until the end of 2025/26, approximately 318 tons were exported. For the same period of the current season, Proarándanos estimates that around 286 tons will remain, about 10% less.

The comparison helps explain why a cumulative growth rate of 48% can coexist with a more moderate annual projection. At this point in the season, a larger proportion of the estimated volume has already been exported, while the new projection anticipates less fruit for the remaining period.

The review thus focuses on the expected volume for the middle and final part of the campaign.

Peak week drops to 16,5 tons

The highest weekly volume is now projected for week 42, at approximately 16,5 tons. This figure is 16% lower than the forecast in August and 21% lower than the 20,9 tons recorded during the peak week of 2025/26.

The revision not only reduces the expected volume at the close, but also the anticipated intensity at the peak of the curve. Proarándanos identifies the drop during the peak week as the clearest sign of the impact El Niño is having on productivity during the middle and final stages of the season.

The positive progress in the first few weeks does not contradict that forecast. According to the industry association, it is partly due to the consolidation of early varieties and the increase in planted area, while the greatest climatic impact remains concentrated towards the middle and end of the season.

The adjustment also extends to the organic structure.

The fourth projection also reduces the expectation for the organic blueberryThe estimated closing figure drops from about 31 to 25 tons, an 18% adjustment compared to August, proportionally greater than the reduction applied to the total volume of the campaign.

Its peak week is now projected for week 48, with approximately 1.200 tons, compared to the 1.900 tons reached in week 40 of the previous campaign.

The organic blueberry forecast drops to 25 tons, with its peak week falling in week 48. Source: Proarándanos.

The September estimate may still be revised. Proarándanos notes that adverse weather conditions have persisted and does not rule out another downward adjustment. In October, the association will conduct its fifth review of the production and export outlook for the 2026/27 season.

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Pro-blueberries